Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106-1248, USA.
J Stud Alcohol Drugs. 2010 Jan;71(1):41-5. doi: 10.15288/jsad.2010.71.41.
Given the public health impact of adolescent alcohol use and heavy episodic drinking, we sought to identify the prevalence of types of alcohol use among national samples of 8th- and 10th grade American students. In addition, a range of known risk factors was used to predict the most problematic type: heavy episodic use.
Monitoring the Future data on lifetime, past-year, and past-30-day alcohol use and on past-2-week heavy episodic drinking were available for 505,668 students from 1991 to 2007 (weighted N = 505,853; 51.5% girls; 65.3% White, 12.3% Black, 11.1% Hispanic). Logistic regression was then used in a representative subsample of 110,130 students to predict heavy episodic drinking in the previous 2 weeks.
In the most recent cohorts, about 1 in 10 8th graders and 1 in 5 10th graders had engaged in heavy episodic drinking in the past 2 weeks. Explanatory variables in logistic regression were largely invariant across cohort, grade level, gender, and race/ethnicity, accounting for 48% of the variance in heavy episodic drinking.
Heavy episodic drinking continues to be a prevalent behavior among the nation's youth, with consistent risk factors over time, highlighting the continued necessity of effective screening and prevention efforts.
鉴于青少年饮酒和重度周期性饮酒对公众健康的影响，我们试图确定美国 8 年级和 10 年级全国样本中各种类型的饮酒方式的流行程度。此外，还使用了一系列已知的风险因素来预测最严重的问题类型：重度周期性饮酒。
监测未来的数据涵盖了学生终生、过去一年和过去 30 天的饮酒情况，以及过去两周的重度周期性饮酒情况。这些数据来自 1991 年至 2007 年的 505668 名学生（加权 N=505853；51.5%为女生；65.3%为白人，12.3%为黑人，11.1%为西班牙裔）。然后，在一个由 110130 名学生组成的代表性样本中使用逻辑回归来预测过去两周的重度周期性饮酒。
在最新的队列中，大约每 10 名 8 年级学生和每 5 名 10 年级学生中就有 1 人在过去两周内有过重度周期性饮酒。逻辑回归中的解释变量在队列、年级、性别和种族/民族方面基本保持不变，解释了重度周期性饮酒的 48%的差异。
重度周期性饮酒仍然是美国青少年中普遍存在的行为，随着时间的推移，其风险因素保持一致，这突显了持续进行有效筛查和预防工作的必要性。
