Ebi Kristie L
ClimAdapt, LLC, 424 Tyndall Street, Los Altos, CA 94022, USA.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2013 Dec 19;11(1):30-46. doi: 10.3390/ijerph110100030.
The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible.
气候变化研究界正在开发一套工具包,用于创建新的情景,以探索和评估与未来气候变化及发展路径相关的广泛不确定性。该工具包的组成部分包括本世纪温室气体排放路径及其相关的气候变化幅度和模式;一系列可能的社会经济发展路径描述,包括定性叙述和定量要素;以及实现特定辐射强迫水平和适应能力水平的气候变化政策。这些组成部分在矩阵架构中结合起来以创建一个情景。沿着描述适应和减缓方面日益增加的社会经济和环境挑战的轴,已经描述了五条参考社会经济发展路径。本文扩展了这些全球路径,以描述它们对公共卫生和医疗保健可能产生的后果,并考虑可以添加的其他要素,以提高新情景的相关性,从而比以前更广泛地解决一系列与政策相关的问题。
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