Prevention Research Branch, Division of Epidemiology, Statistics and Prevention Research, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2010 Mar;42(2):689-94. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2009.10.017. Epub 2009 Nov 28.
Motor vehicle crashes are the main cause of morbidity and mortality in teenagers and young adults in the United States. Driving exposure and passenger presence, which can both vary by driver and passenger characteristics, are known to influence crash risk. Some studies have accounted for driving exposure in calculating young driver fatal crash risk in the presence of passengers, but none have estimated crash risk by driver sex and passenger age and sex. One possible reason for this gap is that data collection on driving exposure often precludes appropriate analyses. The purpose of this study was to examine, per 10 million vehicle trips (VT) and vehicle-miles traveled (VMT), the relative risk of fatal crash involvement in 15-20-year-old male and female drivers as a function of their passenger's age and sex, using solo driving as the referent. The Fatality Analysis Reporting System provided fatal motor vehicle crash data from 1999 to 2003 and the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) provided VT and VMT. The NHTS collects driving exposure for both household and non-household members (e.g., friends, colleagues), but demographic characteristics only on household members. Missing age and sex of non-household passengers were imputed with hot deck using information from household passengers' trips with non-household drivers, thereby enabling the calculation of crash rate and relative risk estimates based upon driver and passenger characteristics. Using this approach, the highest risk was found for young male drivers with 16-20-year-old passengers (relative risk [RR] per 10 million VT=7.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.34-8.69; RR per 10 million VMT=9.94; 95% CI, 9.13-10.81). Relative risk was also high for 21-34-year-old passengers, again particularly when both drivers and passengers were male. These effects warrant further investigation and underscore the importance of considering driving exposure by passenger characteristics in understanding crash risk. Additionally, as all imputation techniques are imperfect, a more accurate estimation of U.S. fatal crash risk per distance driven would require national surveys to collect data on non-household passenger characteristics.
机动车事故是美国青少年和年轻人发病率和死亡率的主要原因。驾驶暴露和乘客存在，这两者都可以因驾驶员和乘客的特征而变化，已知会影响碰撞风险。一些研究已经考虑了驾驶暴露在计算有乘客存在的年轻驾驶员致命碰撞风险时的作用，但没有研究估计驾驶员性别和乘客年龄和性别对碰撞风险的影响。造成这种差距的一个可能原因是，驾驶暴露数据的收集往往排除了适当的分析。本研究的目的是检查每 1000 万车辆旅行（VT）和车辆行驶里程（VMT），15-20 岁男性和女性驾驶员的乘客年龄和性别对其致命碰撞事故的相对风险，以单独驾驶为参照。从 1999 年到 2003 年，致命事故分析报告系统（Fatality Analysis Reporting System）提供了致命机动车碰撞数据，2001 年全国家庭旅行调查（National Household Travel Survey，NHTS）提供了 VT 和 VMT。NHTS 收集了家庭和非家庭成员（如朋友、同事）的驾驶暴露情况，但仅收集了家庭成员的人口特征。非家庭乘客的年龄和性别缺失用热补（hot deck）法进行推断，使用来自家庭乘客与非家庭驾驶员的旅行信息，从而能够根据驾驶员和乘客特征计算碰撞率和相对风险估计。使用这种方法，发现年轻男性驾驶员载有 16-20 岁乘客的风险最高（每 1000 万 VT 的相对风险[RR]为 7.99；95%置信区间[CI]，7.34-8.69；每 1000 万 VMT 的 RR 为 9.94；95%CI，9.13-10.81）。21-34 岁乘客的相对风险也很高，尤其是当驾驶员和乘客都是男性时。这些影响值得进一步调查，并强调在理解碰撞风险时，需要考虑乘客特征的驾驶暴露情况。此外，由于所有推断技术都不完善，要更准确地估计美国每行驶距离的致命碰撞风险，需要国家调查收集非家庭乘客特征的数据。
