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地方病、认知和当地行为反应。

Endemic disease, awareness, and local behavioural response.

机构信息

School of Biological Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, UK.

出版信息

J Theor Biol. 2010 May 21;264(2):501-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.02.032. Epub 2010 Feb 23.

Abstract

The spread of a contagious disease is often accompanied by a rise in awareness of those in the social vicinity of infected individuals, and a subsequent change in behaviour. Such reactions can manifest themselves in lower susceptibility as people try to prevent themselves from catching the disease, but also in lower infectivity because of self-imposed quarantine or better hygiene, shorter durations of infectiousness or longer immunity. We here focus on the scenario of an endemic disease of which members of the population can be either aware or unaware, and consider a broad set of possible reactions. We quantify the impact on the endemicity of a disease in a well-mixed population under the variation of different disease parameters as a consequence of growing awareness in the population. Applying a pair-closure scheme allows us to analyse the effect of local correlations if aware individuals tend to occur near infected cases, and to link this to the amount of overlap between the networks underlying the spread of awareness and disease, respectively. Lastly, we study the consequences on the dynamics when the pathogen and awareness spread at different velocities.

摘要

传染病的传播通常伴随着感染个体周围社会群体意识的提高,以及随后行为的改变。这些反应可以表现为人们试图预防疾病时的易感性降低,但也可以表现为由于自我隔离或更好的卫生条件、传染性持续时间缩短或免疫力增强而导致的传染性降低。我们在这里关注的是一种地方病的情况,即人群中的成员可能意识到或没有意识到这种疾病,并考虑了一系列可能的反应。我们根据不同的疾病参数,量化了由于人群中意识的增强而导致的在混合良好的人群中疾病地方性的变化。应用配对封闭方案,我们可以分析在意识个体倾向于接近感染病例的情况下,局部相关性对疾病的影响,并将其与传播意识和疾病的网络之间的重叠量分别联系起来。最后,我们研究了当病原体和意识以不同的速度传播时对动力学的影响。

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