Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, ETH Zurich, Universitaetstrasse 22, Zurich, Switzerland.
Waste Manag. 2010 Jul;30(7):1382-94. doi: 10.1016/j.wasman.2010.02.008. Epub 2010 Mar 4.
Understanding technological change provides a crucial basis for governing sustainability transitions. In this paper we present an analysis of technological change using the example of Swiss thermal waste processing. In recent years, increased concerns about the low quality of residues from grate-firing systems led to the examination of alternative technologies. Yet despite clear indications of a potential better performance with respect to residue quality, none of these alternatives has been adopted. Based on a two-stage knowledge integration among 15 leading experts, in a retrospective analysis we identified factors that have significantly affected technological change in Swiss thermal waste processing. These factors were then related to three technological options representing different types of technological change, i.e., from incremental improvements of the existing to the implementation of a new technology. The results indicate that technological change is currently in a technological lock-in and provide detailed insights on the causes. The lock-in results in the step-wise further development of the status quo grate-firing system despite its limitations for improving the residue qualities. Almost all factors (legal, economic, societal, technological) of the existing 'thermal waste management' system have been well adapted to the cost- and energy-efficient grate-firing technology, blocking innovative technologies from entering the Swiss market. In addition, pressures from the context, e.g., societal pressure related to landfill risks, have not been strong enough to promote non-incremental change.
理解技术变革为可持续转型的治理提供了至关重要的基础。本文以瑞士热能废物处理为例，分析了技术变革。近年来，人们对炉排燃烧系统残渣质量低的问题日益关注，导致人们开始研究替代技术。然而，尽管有明确的迹象表明，在残渣质量方面，这些替代技术具有潜在的更好表现，但没有一种替代技术得到采用。基于对 15 位主要专家的两阶段知识整合，我们在回顾性分析中确定了影响瑞士热能废物处理技术变革的因素。然后，将这些因素与代表不同类型技术变革的三种技术方案相关联，即从现有技术的增量改进到新技术的实施。结果表明，技术变革目前处于技术锁定状态，并详细分析了原因。锁定的结果是，尽管存在提高残渣质量的局限性，但现状的炉排燃烧系统仍在逐步进一步发展。现有“热能废物管理”系统的几乎所有因素（法律、经济、社会、技术）都很好地适应了成本效益高的炉排燃烧技术，阻止了创新技术进入瑞士市场。此外，来自背景的压力，例如与垃圾填埋场风险相关的社会压力，还不足以推动非增量变革。
