Laplanche Christophe
ECOLAB (UMR 5245), Ecole Nationale Superieure d'Agronomie de Toulouse, 31326 Castanet-Tolosan, France.
Biom J. 2010 Apr;52(2):209-21. doi: 10.1002/bimj.200900130.
The author compares 12 hierarchical models in the aim of estimating the abundance of fish in alpine streams by using removal sampling data collected at multiple locations. The most expanded model accounts for (i) variability of the abundance among locations, (ii) variability of the catchability among locations, and (iii) residual variability of the catchability among fish. Eleven model reductions are considered depending which variability is included in the model. The more restrictive model considers none of the aforementioned variabilities. Computations of the latter model can be achieved by using the algorithm presented by Carle and Strub (Biometrics 1978, 34, 621-630). Maximum a posteriori and interval estimates of the parameters as well as the Akaike and the Bayesian information criterions of model fit are computed by using samples simulated by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The models are compared by using a trout (Salmo trutta fario) parr (0+) removal sampling data set collected at three locations in the Pyrénées mountain range (Haute-Garonne, France) in July 2006. Results suggest that, in this case study, variability of the catchability is not significant, either among fish or locations. Variability of the abundance among locations is significant. 95% interval estimates of the abundances at the three locations are [0.15, 0.24], [0.26, 0.36], and [0.45, 0.58] parrs per m(2). Such differences are likely the consequence of habitat variability.
作者比较了12个层次模型,目的是通过使用在多个地点收集的去除抽样数据来估计高山溪流中鱼类的丰度。最复杂的模型考虑了以下因素:(i)不同地点间丰度的变异性;(ii)不同地点间可捕性的变异性;(iii)不同鱼类间可捕性的残差变异性。根据模型中包含哪些变异性,考虑了11种模型简化情况。限制最多的模型不考虑上述任何一种变异性。后一种模型的计算可通过使用卡尔和斯特鲁布(《生物统计学》,1978年,第34卷,621 - 630页)提出的算法来实现。通过使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法模拟的样本,计算参数的最大后验估计和区间估计以及模型拟合的赤池信息准则和贝叶斯信息准则。使用2006年7月在法国上加龙省比利牛斯山脉三个地点收集的褐鳟(Salmo trutta fario)幼鱼(0 +)去除抽样数据集对模型进行比较。结果表明,在本案例研究中,无论是在不同鱼类之间还是不同地点之间,可捕性的变异性都不显著。不同地点间丰度的变异性显著。三个地点每平方米的丰度95%区间估计为[0.15, 0.24]、[0.26, 0.36]和[0.45, 0.58]条幼鱼。这种差异可能是栖息地变异性的结果。