Center for Health Care Evaluation, Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System and Stanford University Medical Center, Menlo Park, California, USA.
J Stud Alcohol Drugs. 2010 Mar;71(2):165-8. doi: 10.15288/jsad.2010.71.165.
Little research has examined the role of retirement in shaping late-life drinking careers, and it has generally been limited to cross-sectional designs or short-term follow-ups that emphasize group-level comparisons of retirees and nonretirees. The purpose of this study was to determine the following: (a) the effect of retired status on older adults' 10-year within-person drinking trajectories and (b) whether age, gender, income, health, and problem-drinker status account for or moderate this effect.
We first estimated older adults' (baseline M= 62 years; n = 595) 10-year within-person drinking trajectories using three successively predictive multilevel regression models: unconditional growth, retired status alone, and retired status controlling for covariates. Next, we determined whether inclusion of Retired Status x Covariate interactions would improve prediction of the trajectories.
Participants' drinking frequency declined moderately over the 10-year interval, and retired status hastened the decline. However, this effect disappeared once covariates were added to the model: Baseline poorer health, lower income, and current problem-drinker status predicted steeper decline in drinking frequency, whereas former problem-drinker status predicted slower decline. Lower income and current drinking problems also predicted steeper declines in amount of alcohol consumed. There were no statistically significant or uniquely contributive interactions between retired status and age, gender, health, income, or drinking problems for predicting late-life drinking trajectories.
Baseline health, income, and problem-drinking history are more important than retired status for predicting older adults' long-term within-person drinking trajectories. These factors-and recency of drinking problems-should be considered in future studies of retirement and late-life drinking patterns.
鲜有研究考察退休对晚年饮酒生涯的塑造作用，且这些研究通常仅限于横断面设计或短期随访，强调退休者和非退休者的群体水平比较。本研究旨在确定以下两点：（a）退休状态对老年人 10 年个体内饮酒轨迹的影响；（b）年龄、性别、收入、健康和问题饮酒者状况是否解释或调节了这种影响。
我们首先使用三个连续的预测性多层回归模型估计了老年人（基线 M=62 岁；n=595）的 10 年个体内饮酒轨迹：无条件增长、仅退休状态、以及退休状态控制协变量。接下来，我们确定是否纳入退休状态与协变量的交互项会提高轨迹的预测效果。
参与者的饮酒频率在 10 年的时间间隔内适度下降，而退休状态加速了下降。然而，一旦将协变量纳入模型，这种效应就消失了：基线时健康状况较差、收入较低和当前问题饮酒者状况预测饮酒频率的下降更为陡峭，而过去的问题饮酒者状况则预测下降较为缓慢。较低的收入和当前的饮酒问题也预测了酒精摄入量的更大幅度下降。在预测晚年饮酒轨迹方面，退休状态与年龄、性别、健康、收入或饮酒问题之间没有统计学上显著或独特的交互作用。
基线时的健康、收入和问题饮酒史比退休状态更能预测老年人的长期个体内饮酒轨迹。在未来关于退休和晚年饮酒模式的研究中，应考虑这些因素以及最近的饮酒问题。
