Cancer Control Research Program, Norris Cotton Cancer Center, Dartmouth Medical School, Lebanon, NH 03756, USA.
Addiction. 2010 Mar;105(3):506-14. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2009.02782.x.
This study examines the predictive validity of sensation seeking as a predictor of adolescent substance use, in order to optimize targeting for substance use prevention programs.
Longitudinal study.
Random-digit dial telephone survey. Participants A total of 6522 US adolescents aged 10-14 years at baseline, resurveyed at 8-month intervals for three subsequent waves.
Two outcomes were assessed-onset of binge drinking (more than five drinks in a short time) and established smoking (>100 cigarettes life-time). Sensation seeking level was assessed at baseline. Logistic regression was used to predict onset of substance use at any follow-up wave as a function of sensation seeking. The receiver operating characteristics curve was used to illustrate how well sensation seeking predicted substance use as a function of different cut-off points for defining high sensation seeking, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AROC) was the metric of predictive validity.
Of 5834 participants with one or more follow-up assessments, 5634 reported no binge drinking and 5802 were not established smokers at baseline, of whom 717 (12.7% of 5634) reported binge drinking and 144 (2.5% of 5802) reported established smoking at one or more follow-up interviews. Sensation seeking predicted binge drinking moderately well [AROC = 0.71 (95% confidence interval 0.69, 0.73)] and was a significantly better predictor of established smoking onset [AROC = 0.80 (0.76, 0.83)]. For binge drinking, predictive validity was significantly lower in blacks; for established smoking it was significantly higher for Hispanics. Implications for two targeting interventions are discussed.
Sensation seeking works moderately well at identifying adolescents at risk for onset of binge drinking and established smoking. This study offers a guide for determining the appropriate targeting cut-off value, based on intervention efficacy, costs and risks.
本研究旨在检验感觉寻求作为青少年物质使用预测因子的预测效度，以便优化物质使用预防计划的目标人群定位。
纵向研究。
随机数字拨号电话调查。参与者：共有 6522 名美国青少年，基线年龄为 10-14 岁，在随后的三个波次中，每隔 8 个月进行一次为期 8 个月的重复调查。
评估了两个结果——狂欢性饮酒（短时间内饮用超过五杯酒）和已确立的吸烟（一生中吸烟超过 100 支）的起始情况。在基线时评估了感觉寻求水平。使用逻辑回归预测任何后续随访波次中物质使用的起始情况，作为感觉寻求的函数。接收者操作特征曲线用于说明感觉寻求作为物质使用的预测因子的表现，该曲线是根据不同的定义高感觉寻求的截止点来定义的，而接收者操作特征曲线下的面积（AROC）是预测有效性的指标。
在有一个或多个随访评估的 5834 名参与者中，有 5634 名报告在基线时没有狂欢性饮酒，有 5802 名报告在基线时没有已确立的吸烟，其中有 717 名（5634 名的 12.7%）在一个或多个随访访谈中报告了狂欢性饮酒，有 144 名（5802 名的 2.5%）报告了已确立的吸烟。感觉寻求对狂欢性饮酒的预测效果较好[AROC=0.71（95%置信区间为 0.69，0.73）]，对已确立的吸烟起始情况的预测效果显著更好[AROC=0.80（0.76，0.83）]。对于狂欢性饮酒，黑人的预测有效性显著较低；对于已确立的吸烟，西班牙裔的预测有效性显著较高。讨论了两种目标干预措施的含义。
感觉寻求在识别有狂欢性饮酒和已确立的吸烟起始风险的青少年方面效果较好。本研究提供了一种根据干预效果、成本和风险确定适当的目标人群截止值的指导。
