Rorres Chris, Pelletier Sky T K, Keeling Matt J, Smith Gary
Section of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Kennett Square, PA 19348, USA.
Theor Popul Biol. 2010 Aug;78(1):46-53. doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2010.04.003. Epub 2010 May 7.
Three different estimators are presented for the types of parameters present in mathematical models of animal epidemics. The estimators make use of the data collected during an epidemic, which may be limited, incomplete, or under collection on an ongoing basis. When data are being collected on an ongoing basis, the estimated parameters can be used to evaluate putative control strategies. These estimators were tested using simulated epidemics based on a spatial, discrete-time, gravity-type, stochastic mathematical model containing two parameters. Target epidemics were simulated with the model and the three estimators were implemented using various combinations of collected data to independently determine the two parameters.
针对动物流行病数学模型中存在的参数类型，提出了三种不同的估计方法。这些估计方法利用了在流行病期间收集的数据，这些数据可能有限、不完整或正在持续收集之中。当数据正在持续收集时，估计出的参数可用于评估假定的控制策略。基于一个包含两个参数的空间、离散时间、引力型随机数学模型，使用模拟流行病对这些估计方法进行了测试。用该模型模拟目标流行病，并使用收集到的数据的各种组合来实施这三种估计方法，以独立确定这两个参数。
