School of Criminal Justice, University of Lausanne, Batochime, Lausanne Dorigny, Switzerland.
Forensic Sci Int Genet. 2010 Jul;4(4):232-8. doi: 10.1016/j.fsigen.2009.10.002. Epub 2009 Nov 3.
In traditional criminal investigation, uncertainties are often dealt with using a combination of common sense, practical considerations and experience, but rarely with tailored statistical models. For example, in some countries, in order to search for a given profile in the national DNA database, it must have allelic information for six or more of the ten SGM Plus loci for a simple trace. If the profile does not have this amount of information then it cannot be searched in the national DNA database (NDNAD). This requirement (of a result at six or more loci) is not based on a statistical approach, but rather on the feeling that six or more would be sufficient. A statistical approach, however, could be more rigorous and objective and would take into consideration factors such as the probability of adventitious matches relative to the actual database size and/or investigator's requirements in a sensible way. Therefore, this research was undertaken to establish scientific foundations pertaining to the use of partial SGM Plus loci profiles (or similar) for investigation.
在传统的刑事侦查中，不确定性通常结合常识、实际考虑和经验来处理，但很少使用定制的统计模型。例如，在一些国家，为了在全国 DNA 数据库中搜索特定的个人资料，必须有 SGM Plus 十个基因座中的六个或更多的等位基因信息，才能进行简单的痕迹检测。如果个人资料没有那么多信息，那么就不能在国家 DNA 数据库（NDNAD）中进行搜索。这种要求（六个或更多基因座的结果）不是基于统计方法，而是基于这样一种感觉，即六个或更多的结果就足够了。然而，统计方法可以更加严格和客观，并以合理的方式考虑偶然匹配的概率相对于实际数据库大小和/或调查人员的要求等因素。因此，进行这项研究是为了为使用部分 SGM Plus 基因座图谱（或类似图谱）进行调查建立科学基础。
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