Rochester Healthcare Decision-making Group and Department of Psychiatry, University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, NY 14642, USA.
Cogn Emot. 2012;26(6):1098-106. doi: 10.1080/02699931.2011.631985. Epub 2012 Mar 7.
Emerging research has examined individual differences in affective forecasting; however, we are aware of no published study to date linking psychopathology symptoms to affective forecasting problems. Pitting cognitive theory against depressive realism theory, we examined whether dysphoria was associated with negatively biased affective forecasts or greater accuracy. Participants (n=325) supplied predicted and actual emotional reactions for three days surrounding an emotionally evocative relational event, Valentine's Day. Predictions were made a month prior to the holiday. Consistent with cognitive theory, we found evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias-the tendency of individuals in dysphoric states to overpredict negative emotional reactions to future events. The dysphoric forecasting bias was robust across ratings of positive and negative affect, forecasts for pleasant and unpleasant scenarios, continuous and categorical operationalisations of dysphoria, and three time points of observation. Similar biases were not observed in analyses examining the independent effects of anxiety and hypomania. Findings provide empirical evidence for the long-assumed influence of depressive symptoms on future expectations. The present investigation has implications for affective forecasting studies examining information-processing constructs, decision making, and broader domains of psychopathology.
新兴研究已经考察了情感预测中的个体差异；然而，我们没有发现迄今为止将精神病理学症状与情感预测问题联系起来的已发表研究。我们将认知理论与抑郁现实主义理论相对比，检验了抑郁是否与负面的情感预测偏差或更高的准确性有关。参与者（n=325）在一个情感唤起的关系事件（情人节）前后三天提供了预测和实际的情绪反应。预测是在假期前一个月做出的。与认知理论一致，我们发现了抑郁个体在预测未来事件时负面情绪反应过度的证据，即抑郁预测偏差。这种抑郁预测偏差在积极和消极情绪的评分、愉快和不愉快场景的预测、抑郁的连续和分类操作化以及三个观察时间点上都是稳健的。在分析焦虑和轻躁狂的独立影响时，没有观察到类似的偏差。这些发现为长期以来抑郁症状对未来期望的影响提供了经验证据。本研究对考察信息处理结构、决策和更广泛的精神病理学领域的情感预测研究具有重要意义。
