Department of Biology, Montana Tech of the University of Montana, Butte, Montana 59701, USA.
Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2010 Aug;10(6):575-83. doi: 10.1089/vbz.2009.0222.
Reports of novel emerging and resurging wildlife and zoonotic diseases have increased. Consequently, integration of pathogen sampling into wildlife monitoring programs has grown. Sampling frequency influences interpretations of coupled host-pathogen dynamics, with direct implication to human exposure risk, but has received little empirical attention. To address this, a 15-year study, based on monthly sampling, of deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) populations and Sin Nombre virus (SNV; a virulent disease in humans) dynamics was evaluated. Estimates of deer mouse abundance, number infected with SNV, and SNV prevalence from sampling less frequently than each month (achieved by deletion of months and recalculation of these parameters) were compared to monthly sampling frequencies. Deer mouse abundance was underestimated (10%-20%), SNV prevalence was overestimated when prevalence was high (>15%), and fewer annual extremes of abundance and infection were detected when sampling frequency was less than monthly. Effort necessary to detect temporal dynamics of SNV differed from effort to detect demographic patterns in deer mouse abundance. Findings here are applicable to sampling strategies for other host-pathogen dynamics and have direct implications for allocation of public health resources and intervention programs.
新型出现和再现的野生动物和人畜共患病的报告有所增加。因此，病原体采样与野生动物监测计划的整合也在增加。采样频率会影响对宿主-病原体动态的解释，这直接关系到人类暴露的风险，但很少受到实证关注。为了解决这个问题，我们评估了一项为期 15 年的研究，该研究基于对鹿鼠（Peromyscus maniculatus）种群和辛诺波病毒（SNV；一种对人类具有致命性的疾病）动态的每月采样。与每月采样频率相比，比较了不频繁采样（通过删除月份和重新计算这些参数来实现）时对鹿鼠数量、感染 SNV 的数量和 SNV 流行率的估计值。鹿鼠数量被低估（10%-20%），当流行率较高（>15%）时，SNV 流行率被高估，当采样频率低于每月时，检测到的丰度和感染的年度极值较少。检测 SNV 时间动态所需的工作量与检测鹿鼠丰度的人口统计学模式所需的工作量不同。这里的发现适用于其他宿主-病原体动态的采样策略，并直接关系到公共卫生资源和干预计划的分配。
