Timaeus I M
Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, England.
Demography. 1991 May;28(2):213-27.
This paper extends earlier research into methods for estimating adult mortality from information on the recent incidence of orphanhood. It presents a series of regression coefficients for estimating female and male mortality from synthetic cohort data on the subsequent orphanhood of those who had a living mother or father at exact age 20. Such information can be obtained either where questions about parental survival have been asked in two inquiries or by asking retrospectively about dates of orphanhood in a single survey. Although the method is somewhat sensitive to errors in the reporting of ages and dates, it is a promising source of up-to-date estimates of adult mortality that are free from bias due to the underreporting of the orphanhood of young children ("the adoption effect").
本文扩展了早期的研究，即从近期孤儿身份发生率信息来估计成人死亡率的方法。它给出了一系列回归系数，用于根据在确切20岁时母亲或父亲在世者随后成为孤儿的合成队列数据来估计女性和男性死亡率。此类信息既可以在两次调查中询问了父母生存情况的地方获取，也可以在单次调查中通过回顾性询问孤儿身份日期来获得。尽管该方法对年龄和日期报告中的误差有些敏感，但它是一个有前景的最新成人死亡率估计来源，不会因幼儿孤儿身份报告不足（“收养效应”）而产生偏差。
