GRETIA, INRETS-Le Descartes 2, 2, Rue de la Butte Verte, F-93166 Noisy Le Grand Cedex, France.
Accid Anal Prev. 2010 Nov;42(6):1606-20. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2010.03.019. Epub 2010 Apr 28.
Accident severity analysis is important to both researchers and practitioners because of its implications in accident cost estimation, external cost estimation and road safety. Although much research has been done to explore the factors influencing crash-injury severity, few studies have investigated the association between severity and traffic characteristics collected real-time during the time the accident occurred. We apply a random parameters ordered probit model to explore the influence of speed and traffic volume on the injury level sustained by vehicle occupants involved in accidents on the A4-A86 junction in the Paris region. Results indicate that increased traffic volume has a consistently positive effect on severity, while speed has a differential effect on severity depending on flow conditions.
事故严重程度分析对研究人员和从业者都很重要，因为它涉及到事故成本估计、外部成本估计和道路安全。尽管已经有很多研究探讨了影响碰撞伤害严重程度的因素，但很少有研究调查在事故发生时实时收集的交通特征与严重程度之间的关联。我们应用随机参数有序概率模型来探讨速度和交通量对巴黎地区 A4-A86 路口事故中车辆乘员受伤程度的影响。结果表明，交通量的增加对严重程度有一致的正向影响，而速度对严重程度的影响则取决于流量条件。
