大流行性流感的有效繁殖数：前瞻性估计。
The effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: prospective estimation.
机构信息
Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
出版信息
Epidemiology. 2010 Nov;21(6):842-6. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181f20977.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Timely estimation of the transmissibility of a novel pandemic influenza virus was a public health priority in 2009.
METHODS
We extended methods for prospective estimation of the effective reproduction number (Rt) over time in an emerging epidemic to allow for reporting delays and repeated importations. We estimated Rt based on case notifications and hospitalizations associated with laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Hong Kong from June through October 2009.
RESULTS
Rt declined from around 1.4-1.5 at the start of the local epidemic to around 1.1-1.2 later in the summer, suggesting changes in transmissibility perhaps related to school vacations or seasonality. Estimates of Rt based on hospitalizations of confirmed H1N1 cases closely matched estimates based on case notifications.
CONCLUSION
Real-time monitoring of the effective reproduction number is feasible and can provide useful information to public health authorities for situational awareness and calibration of mitigation strategies.
摘要
背景
及时评估新型大流行性流感病毒的传播能力是 2009 年公共卫生的当务之急。
方法
我们扩展了针对新兴传染病中有效繁殖数（Rt）随时间变化的前瞻性估计方法，以允许报告延迟和重复输入。我们根据香港 2009 年 6 月至 10 月与实验室确诊的大流行性（H1N1）2009 病毒感染相关的病例报告和住院情况估算了 Rt。
结果
Rt 从当地疫情开始时的 1.4-1.5 左右下降到夏季晚些时候的 1.1-1.2 左右，表明传染性的变化可能与学校假期或季节性有关。基于确诊 H1N1 病例住院情况的 Rt 估计值与基于病例报告的估计值非常吻合。
结论
实时监测有效繁殖数是可行的，可以为公共卫生当局提供有价值的信息，以了解情况并校准缓解策略。
相似文献
1
The effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: prospective estimation.大流行性流感的有效繁殖数：前瞻性估计。
Epidemiology. 2010 Nov;21(6):842-6. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181f20977.
2
School closure and mitigation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Hong Kong.学校停课与 2009 年大流行（H1N1）流感的缓解，香港。
Emerg Infect Dis. 2010 Mar;16(3):538-41. doi: 10.3201/eid1603.091216.
3
Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study.非药物干预措施对 2019 年冠状病毒病和流感在香港的影响评估：一项观察性研究。
Lancet Public Health. 2020 May;5(5):e279-e288. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30090-6. Epub 2020 Apr 17.
4
Real-time estimation of the hospitalization fatality risk of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Hong Kong.香港甲型H1N1流感大流行住院死亡风险的实时估计
Epidemiol Infect. 2016 Jun;144(8):1579-83. doi: 10.1017/S0950268815003179.
5
Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility.新型甲型H1N1流感的季节性传播潜力及活动高峰：基于人类流动性的蒙特卡洛似然分析
BMC Med. 2009 Sep 10;7:45. doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-7-45.
6
A preliminary estimation of the reproduction ratio for new influenza A(H1N1) from the outbreak in Mexico, March-April 2009.2009年3月至4月墨西哥甲型H1N1流感疫情中新型甲型H1N1流感病毒繁殖率的初步估计。
Euro Surveill. 2009 May 14;14(19):19205. doi: 10.2807/ese.14.19.19205-en.
7
Estimation of outbreak severity and transmissibility: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in households.家庭中甲型 H1N1pdm09 流感的暴发严重程度和传染性估计。
BMC Med. 2012 Oct 9;10:117. doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-10-117.
8
Virologically confirmed population-based burden of hospitalization caused by influenza A and B among children in Hong Kong.香港儿童中甲型和乙型流感导致的基于人群的病毒学确诊住院负担。
Clin Infect Dis. 2009 Oct 1;49(7):1016-21. doi: 10.1086/605570.
9
The influence of climatic conditions on the transmission dynamics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile.气候条件对智利 2009 年 A/H1N1 流感大流行传播动力学的影响。
BMC Infect Dis. 2012 Nov 13;12:298. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-12-298.
10
Detection of an oseltamivir-resistant pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus in Hong Kong.在香港检测到对奥司他韦耐药的甲型H1N1大流行性流感病毒。
J Clin Virol. 2009 Nov;46(3):298-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jcv.2009.08.004. Epub 2009 Sep 6.
引用本文的文献
1
Large-scale epidemiological modelling: scanning for mosquito-borne diseases spatio-temporal patterns in Brazil.大规模流行病学建模：探寻巴西蚊媒疾病的时空模式
R Soc Open Sci. 2025 May 28;12(5):241261. doi: 10.1098/rsos.241261. eCollection 2025 May.
2
SARS-CoV-2 Infection in School Settings, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan, 2021-2022.日本冲绳县 2021-2022 年学校环境中的 SARS-CoV-2 感染情况。
Emerg Infect Dis. 2024 Nov;30(11):2343-2351. doi: 10.3201/eid3011.240638.
3
Exploring the impact of population ageing on the spread of emerging respiratory infections and the associated burden of mortality.探讨人口老龄化对新发呼吸道传染病传播的影响及其相关的死亡负担。
BMC Infect Dis. 2023 Nov 7;23(1):767. doi: 10.1186/s12879-023-08657-3.
4
Using digital traces to build prospective and real-time county-level early warning systems to anticipate COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States.利用数字痕迹建立前瞻性和实时的县级预警系统，以预测美国 COVID-19 疫情的爆发。
Sci Adv. 2023 Jan 18;9(3):eabq0199. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abq0199.
5
A perspective on SARS-CoV-2 virus-like particles vaccines.SARS-CoV-2 病毒样颗粒疫苗的展望。
Int Immunopharmacol. 2023 Feb;115:109650. doi: 10.1016/j.intimp.2022.109650. Epub 2023 Jan 11.
6
Heterogeneity in the onwards transmission risk between local and imported cases affects practical estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number.本地病例和输入性病例之间的继续传播风险的异质性影响了时变繁殖数的实际估计。
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2022 Oct 3;380(2233):20210308. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0308. Epub 2022 Aug 15.
7
Adding a reaction-restoration type transmission rate dynamic-law to the basic SEIR COVID-19 model.在基本 SEIR COVID-19 模型中添加反应-恢复型传播率动态定律。
PLoS One. 2022 Jun 16;17(6):e0269843. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0269843. eCollection 2022.
8
Fine-scale estimation of effective reproduction numbers for dengue surveillance.精细化估计登革热监测的有效繁殖数。
PLoS Comput Biol. 2022 Jan 20;18(1):e1009791. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009791. eCollection 2022 Jan.
9
Trust in the Health System and COVID-19 Treatment.对医疗系统和新冠病毒治疗的信任。
Front Psychol. 2021 Jul 9;12:643758. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.643758. eCollection 2021.
10
Hawkes process modeling of COVID-19 with mobility leading indicators and spatial covariates.基于移动性领先指标和空间协变量的新冠肺炎霍克斯过程建模
Int J Forecast. 2022 Apr-Jun;38(2):505-520. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.07.001. Epub 2021 Jul 13.
本文引用的文献
1
Comparative epidemiology of pandemic and seasonal influenza A in households.家庭中大流行性流感和季节性流感 A 的比较流行病学。
N Engl J Med. 2010 Jun 10;362(23):2175-2184. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa0911530.
2
Shedding and transmission of novel influenza virus A/H1N1 infection in households--Germany, 2009.家庭中新甲型流感病毒 A/H1N1 感染的传播和传播——德国，2009 年。
Am J Epidemiol. 2010 Jun 1;171(11):1157-64. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwq071. Epub 2010 May 3.
3
School closure and mitigation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Hong Kong.学校停课与 2009 年大流行（H1N1）流感的缓解，香港。
Emerg Infect Dis. 2010 Mar;16(3):538-41. doi: 10.3201/eid1603.091216.
4
Australia's winter with the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus.澳大利亚2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行期间的冬季。
N Engl J Med. 2009 Dec 31;361(27):2591-4. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp0910445. Epub 2009 Nov 25.
5
Factors associated with death or hospitalization due to pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection in California.加利福尼亚州2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行感染所致死亡或住院相关因素。
JAMA. 2009 Nov 4;302(17):1896-902. doi: 10.1001/jama.2009.1583.
6
Early transmission characteristics of influenza A(H1N1)v in Australia: Victorian state, 16 May - 3 June 2009.2009年5月16日至6月3日澳大利亚甲型H1N1流感病毒的早期传播特征：维多利亚州
Euro Surveill. 2009 Oct 22;14(42):19363. doi: 10.2807/ese.14.42.19363-en.
7
Cross-reactive antibody responses to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus.对2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行病毒的交叉反应性抗体应答。
N Engl J Med. 2009 Nov 12;361(20):1945-52. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa0906453. Epub 2009 Sep 10.
8
The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus.大流行性流感 A（H1N1）病毒的传播和控制。
Science. 2009 Oct 30;326(5953):729-33. doi: 10.1126/science.1177373. Epub 2009 Sep 10.
9
10
How to maintain surveillance for novel influenza A H1N1 when there are too many cases to count.当甲型H1N1流感病例多得难以计数时，如何对其进行监测。
Lancet. 2009 Oct 3;374(9696):1209-11. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61377-5. Epub 2009 Aug 11.
Zotero 插件