大流行性流感的有效繁殖数：前瞻性估计。
The effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: prospective estimation.
机构信息
Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
出版信息
Epidemiology. 2010 Nov;21(6):842-6. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181f20977.
BACKGROUND
Timely estimation of the transmissibility of a novel pandemic influenza virus was a public health priority in 2009.
METHODS
We extended methods for prospective estimation of the effective reproduction number (Rt) over time in an emerging epidemic to allow for reporting delays and repeated importations. We estimated Rt based on case notifications and hospitalizations associated with laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Hong Kong from June through October 2009.
RESULTS
Rt declined from around 1.4-1.5 at the start of the local epidemic to around 1.1-1.2 later in the summer, suggesting changes in transmissibility perhaps related to school vacations or seasonality. Estimates of Rt based on hospitalizations of confirmed H1N1 cases closely matched estimates based on case notifications.
CONCLUSION
Real-time monitoring of the effective reproduction number is feasible and can provide useful information to public health authorities for situational awareness and calibration of mitigation strategies.
背景
及时评估新型大流行性流感病毒的传播能力是 2009 年公共卫生的当务之急。
方法
我们扩展了针对新兴传染病中有效繁殖数（Rt）随时间变化的前瞻性估计方法，以允许报告延迟和重复输入。我们根据香港 2009 年 6 月至 10 月与实验室确诊的大流行性（H1N1）2009 病毒感染相关的病例报告和住院情况估算了 Rt。
结果
Rt 从当地疫情开始时的 1.4-1.5 左右下降到夏季晚些时候的 1.1-1.2 左右，表明传染性的变化可能与学校假期或季节性有关。基于确诊 H1N1 病例住院情况的 Rt 估计值与基于病例报告的估计值非常吻合。
结论
实时监测有效繁殖数是可行的，可以为公共卫生当局提供有价值的信息，以了解情况并校准缓解策略。
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