MRC Human Nutrition Research, Elsie Widdowson Laboratory, Fulbourn Road, Cambridge CB1 9NL, UK.
Br J Nutr. 2011 Jan;105(1):123-32. doi: 10.1017/S0007114510003053.
The predictive power, for total, vascular, cancer and respiratory mortality, of selected redox-modulatory (vitamin and mineral nutrient) indices measured at baseline, was studied in the British National Diet and Nutrition Survey (community-living subset) of people aged 65 years and over. Mortality status and its primary and underlying causes were recorded for 1054 (mean age 76·6 (sd 7·4) years and 49·0 % female) participants, from the baseline survey in 1994–5 until September 2008. During this interval, 74 % of the male and 62 % of the female participants died. Total mortality was significantly predicted by baseline plasma concentrations (per sd) of vitamin C (hazard ratio (HR) 0·81; 95 % CI 0·74, 0·88), α-carotene (HR 0·90; 95 % CI 0·81, 0·99), Se (HR 0·76; 95 % CI 0·69, 0·84), Zn (HR 0·79; 95 % CI 0·72, 0·87), Cu (HR 1·27; 95 % CI 1·14, 1·42) and Fe (HR 0·81; 95 % CI 0·74, 0·89). Total mortality was also significantly predicted by baseline dietary intakes (per sd) of food energy (HR 0·86; 95 % CI 0·79, 0·94), vitamin C (HR 0·88; 95 % CI 0·80, 0·94), carotenoids (HR 0·89; 95 % CI 0·83, 0·96), Zn (HR 0·89; 95 % CI 0·82, 0·96) and Cu (HR 0·91; 95 % CI 0·84, 1·00). Prediction patterns and significance for primary vascular, cancer and respiratory mortality differed in certain respects, but not fundamentally. Model adjustment for known disease or mortality risk predictors resulted in loss of significance for some of the indices; however, plasma Se and Zn, and food energy remained significant predictors. We conclude that total and primary vascular, cancer and respiratory mortality in older British people of both sexes is predicted by several biochemical indices of redox-modulatory nutrients, some of which may reflect the respondents' acute-phase status at baseline, whereas others may reflect the healthiness of their lifestyle.
本研究旨在探讨基线时测定的某些氧化还原调节（维生素和矿物质营养素）指标对英国国民饮食与营养调查（居住在社区的老年人亚组）中 65 岁及以上人群的总死亡率、血管死亡率、癌症死亡率和呼吸死亡率的预测能力。在基线调查（1994-5 年）至 2008 年 9 月期间，记录了 1054 名（平均年龄 76.6[标准差 7.4]岁，49.0%为女性）参与者的死亡率状况及其主要和根本死因。在此期间，74%的男性和 62%的女性参与者死亡。总死亡率与基线血浆浓度（每标准差）呈显著负相关：维生素 C（危险比（HR）0.81；95%置信区间（CI）0.74，0.88）、α-胡萝卜素（HR 0.90；95%CI 0.81，0.99）、硒（HR 0.76；95%CI 0.69，0.84）、锌（HR 0.79；95%CI 0.72，0.87）、铜（HR 1.27；95%CI 1.14，1.42）和铁（HR 0.81；95%CI 0.74，0.89）。总死亡率也与基线饮食摄入量（每标准差）呈显著负相关：食物能量（HR 0.86；95%CI 0.79，0.94）、维生素 C（HR 0.88；95%CI 0.80，0.94）、类胡萝卜素（HR 0.89；95%CI 0.83，0.96）、锌（HR 0.89；95%CI 0.82，0.96）和铜（HR 0.91；95%CI 0.84，1.00）。主要血管、癌症和呼吸死亡率的预测模式和意义在某些方面存在差异，但并非根本不同。对已知疾病或死亡率风险预测因子进行模型调整后，部分指数的显著性降低；然而，血浆硒和锌以及食物能量仍然是显著的预测因子。我们的结论是，英国男女老年人的总死亡率和主要血管、癌症和呼吸死亡率由多种氧化还原调节营养素的生化指标预测，其中一些指标可能反映了基线时受访者的急性期状态，而其他指标可能反映了他们生活方式的健康状况。
