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热带地区减少畜牧业和牧场管理甲烷和二氧化碳排放的潜力。

Potential for reduced methane and carbon dioxide emissions from livestock and pasture management in the tropics.

机构信息

Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research/Earth System Science Partnership Challenge Program on Climate Change, Agriculture & Food Security, University of Copenhagen, DK-1958 Frederiksberg, Denmark.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Nov 16;107(46):19667-72. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0912890107. Epub 2010 Sep 7.

Abstract

We estimate the potential reductions in methane and carbon dioxide emissions from several livestock and pasture management options in the mixed and rangeland-based production systems in the tropics. The impacts of adoption of improved pastures, intensifying ruminant diets, changes in land-use practices, and changing breeds of large ruminants on the production of methane and carbon dioxide are calculated for two levels of adoption: complete adoption, to estimate the upper limit to reductions in these greenhouse gases (GHGs), and optimistic but plausible adoption rates taken from the literature, where these exist. Results are expressed both in GHG per ton of livestock product and in Gt CO(2)-eq. We estimate that the maximum mitigation potential of these options in the land-based livestock systems in the tropics amounts to approximately 7% of the global agricultural mitigation potential to 2030. Using historical adoption rates from the literature, the plausible mitigation potential of these options could contribute approximately 4% of global agricultural GHG mitigation. This could be worth on the order of $1.3 billion per year at a price of $20 per t CO(2)-eq. The household-level and sociocultural impacts of some of these options warrant further study, however, because livestock have multiple roles in tropical systems that often go far beyond their productive utility.

摘要

我们估算了几种热带混合草地和牧地生产系统中的牲畜和牧场管理方案,这些方案在减少甲烷和二氧化碳排放方面的潜力。对于改良牧场的完全采用(以估算这些温室气体减排的上限)和从文献中选取的乐观但合理的采用率这两种采用水平,我们计算了采用强化反刍动物饲料、改变土地利用方式和改变大型反刍动物品种对甲烷和二氧化碳产生的影响。结果以每头牲畜产品的温室气体排放量和 Gt CO(2)-eq 表示。我们估计,这些方案在热带土地基牲畜系统中的最大缓解潜力约为 2030 年全球农业缓解潜力的 7%。使用文献中的历史采用率,这些方案的合理缓解潜力可有助于全球农业温室气体减排的 4%左右。如果以每吨二氧化碳当量 20 美元的价格计算,这每年大约价值 13 亿美元。然而,由于牲畜在热带系统中具有多种作用,远远超出了其生产用途,因此其中一些方案的家庭层面和社会文化影响值得进一步研究。

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