Dudel Christian, López Gómez María Andrée, Benavides Fernando G, Myrskylä Mikko
1Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Str. 1, 18057 Rostock, Germany.
2Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA USA.
Eur J Popul. 2018 Jan 3;34(5):769-791. doi: 10.1007/s10680-017-9458-9. eCollection 2018 Dec.
While there has been considerable debate about extending the length of working life, relatively little is known about this issue. We use data from the Spanish Continuous Working Life Sample for 2004-2013 to calculate period working life tables, which in turn allows us to assess the impact of the financial crisis on working life expectancy in Spain. Before the recession hit, working life expectancy in Spain was around 38 years for males and 33 years for females. The recession had a tremendous impact on the Spanish labor market, but the effects differed considerably by gender and occupational category. Men working in skilled non-manual jobs were less affected, while men working in unskilled manual jobs lost close to 14 years of working life expectancy. Women were less affected than men. With working life expectancy decreasing, the average proportion of lifetime spent in unemployment and outside the labor market increased markedly, whereas the average number of years spent in retirement changed only a little. When we decompose losses in working life expectancy by age group, we find that economic fluctuations affect both older and younger workers. This result suggests that policies that focus on retirement ages only are incomplete. We also compare our findings to the results obtained by Sullivans method, which is based on prevalence rates rather than the incidence-based working life table approach. We find that the use of Sullivans approach does not accurately reflect the levels of and the trends in working life expectancy.
尽管关于延长工作寿命的问题存在大量争论,但人们对这个问题的了解相对较少。我们使用2004年至2013年西班牙连续工作寿命样本的数据来计算时期工作寿命表,这反过来使我们能够评估金融危机对西班牙工作预期寿命的影响。在经济衰退来袭之前,西班牙男性的工作预期寿命约为38年,女性约为33年。经济衰退对西班牙劳动力市场产生了巨大影响,但不同性别和职业类别的影响差异很大。从事熟练非体力工作的男性受影响较小,而从事非熟练体力工作的男性失去了近14年的工作预期寿命。女性受影响比男性小。随着工作预期寿命的下降,一生中在失业和劳动力市场之外度过的平均比例显著增加,而退休期间度过的平均年数变化不大。当我们按年龄组分解工作预期寿命的损失时,我们发现经济波动对老年和年轻工人都有影响。这一结果表明,仅关注退休年龄的政策是不完整的。我们还将我们的研究结果与基于患病率而非基于发病率的工作寿命表方法的沙利文方法所获得的结果进行了比较。我们发现,使用沙利文方法不能准确反映工作预期寿命的水平和趋势。