School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2010 Oct 26;4(10):e761. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000761.
Neglected tropical diseases affect more than one billion people worldwide. The populations most impacted by such diseases are typically the most resource-limited. Mathematical modeling of disease transmission and cost-effectiveness analyses can play a central role in maximizing the utility of limited resources for neglected tropical diseases. We review the contributions that mathematical modeling has made to optimizing intervention strategies of vector-borne neglected diseases. We propose directions forward in the modeling of these diseases, including integrating new knowledge of vector and pathogen ecology, incorporating evolutionary responses to interventions, and expanding the scope of sensitivity analysis in order to achieve robust results.
被忽视的热带病影响着全球超过 10 亿人口。受此类疾病影响最大的人群通常资源最为有限。对疾病传播和成本效益分析进行数学建模，可以在最大限度地利用有限资源治疗被忽视的热带病方面发挥核心作用。我们综述了数学建模在优化虫媒传染病干预策略方面的贡献。我们还为这些疾病的建模提出了一些前进方向，包括整合有关病媒和病原体生态学的新知识，将对干预措施的进化反应纳入其中，以及扩大敏感性分析的范围，以得出稳健的结果。
