Hollingsworth T Déirdre, Pulliam Juliet R C, Funk Sebastian, Truscott James E, Isham Valerie, Lloyd Alun L
Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; Department of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool L3 5QA, UK.
Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
Epidemics. 2015 Mar;10:16-20. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.007. Epub 2014 Aug 30.
Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission--whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of "evolution-proof" interventions against vector-borne disease.
直接传播病原体的建模者所面临的许多挑战,在对通过间接传播(无论是通过环境阶段、媒介、中间宿主还是多个宿主)的病原体进行流行病学建模时也会出现。特别是,了解不同宿主的作用、如何测量接触和感染模式、接触率的异质性以及接近消除时的动态变化,都是相关挑战,无论传播方式如何。然而,在对媒介传播疾病和大型寄生虫进行建模时,仍然存在一些特定且独特的挑战。此外,目前许多被列为控制和消除目标的被忽视热带病都是媒介传播、大型寄生性的,或两者兼具,因此本文涵盖了有助于加速控制这些高负担疾病的挑战。在此,我们讨论通过媒介或传播生活阶段对人类感染进行间接测量的挑战,以及估计不同宿主群体对传播的贡献。我们还讨论了针对媒介传播疾病的“防进化”干预措施问题。