Evaluation of the Accuracy of NASS/CDS Delta-V Estimates from the Enhanced WinSmash Algorithm.

The National Automotive Sampling System / Crashworthiness Data System (NASS/CDS) uses the WinSmash program to reconstruct changes in vehicle velocity for real world crashes. Vehicle change in velocity, or delta-V, is a measure of crash severity and a predictor of injury risk. Earlier studies have demonstrated that WinSmash 2.42 underestimated the delta-V by 23% on average with the use of categorical stiffness values for vehicles identified as a source of error. An enhanced version of WinSmash, WinSmash 2008, was developed to employ vehicle specific stiffness values whenever possible. A total of 478 General Motors vehicles equipped with event data recorders (EDRs) and involved in real-world crashes were collected from years 2000 - 2008 of the NASS/CDS database and the delta-V was computed using the enhanced WinSmash. All vehicles were involved in frontal impacts. The enhanced reconstruction algorithm reduced the underestimation of delta-V from 23% to 13% on average for all vehicles. Delta-V estimates for cars only were greatly improved but still understated by 16% on average. Less than 5% error in delta-V was observed for pickup trucks and utility vehicles. The amount of structural overlap for the vehicle and investigator confidence in the reconstruction continued to have an effect on accuracy. No difference in average delta-V was observed when using either updated categorical stiffness values or vehicle specific stiffness values. The changes in WinSmash delta-Vs have important policy implications for NHTSA as the NASS/CDS delta-Vs are the basis for traffic and safety regulations as well as the speeds for vehicular crash testing and costs/benefits analyses.