Fischer Dominik, Thomas Stephanie M, Beierkuhnlein Carl
Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstrasse 30, D-95447 Bayreuth, Germany.
Geospat Health. 2010 Nov;5(1):59-69. doi: 10.4081/gh.2010.187.
Climate change is expected to manifest in the shift of organisms to regions where they were not present in the past, potentially entailing previously unseen biological risks. However, studies evaluating these future trends are scarce. Here, an important group of vectors (sandflies) and the pathogen transmitted (Leishmania infantum complex) causing the infectious disease visceral leishmaniasis is investigated, focussing on potential establishment in Germany during the 21st century. As the most important habitat factor, temperature requirements of pathogen and vector were derived from the literature and compared with recent climate records - provided by worldclim - and climate change scenarios. Climate data from the Regional Climate Model REMO were obtained and averaged over the time periods 2011- 2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. Projected temperature changes (based on the A1B and A2 scenarios) were correlated with the constraints of vector and pathogen. Simulated potentially suitable habitat areas for vector and pathogen were merged to generate a temperature-derived risk map of visceral leishmaniasis. Temperature conditions seem to become suitable for the vector across large swaths of Germany. Nevertheless, temperature constraints for the pathogen may defer the establishment of the parasitic disease, particularly during the first half of the 21st century. Long-lasting epidemics of visceral leishmaniasis are therefore not expected in Germany during the next few decades, although during extremely warm years an increase in autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis may occur. The southwest (Upper Rhine Valley) and west (Cologne Bight) of Germany are identified as risk areas. The time of potential establishment and corresponding rise in biological risk varies between scenarios, due to differences in the predicted rate of temperature increase.
气候变化预计将表现为生物向过去未曾出现过的地区转移，这可能带来前所未见的生物风险。然而，评估这些未来趋势的研究却很匮乏。在此，我们对一类重要的病媒（白蛉）以及传播导致内脏利什曼病这一传染病的病原体（婴儿利什曼原虫复合体）展开研究，重点关注其在21世纪于德国潜在的定殖情况。作为最重要的栖息地因素，病原体和病媒的温度需求取自文献，并与近期的气候记录（由worldclim提供）以及气候变化情景进行比较。获取了区域气候模型REMO的气候数据，并对2011 - 2040年、2041 - 2070年和2071 - 2100年这几个时间段的数据进行了平均。预测的温度变化（基于A1B和A2情景）与病媒和病原体的限制条件相关联。模拟了病媒和病原体潜在适宜栖息地面积，并将其合并以生成基于温度的内脏利什曼病风险地图。温度条件似乎对德国大片地区的病媒变得适宜。然而，病原体的温度限制可能会推迟这种寄生虫病的定殖，特别是在21世纪上半叶。因此，预计在未来几十年内德国不会出现内脏利什曼病的长期流行，不过在极暖年份可能会出现本地利什曼病病例增加的情况。德国西南部（上莱茵河谷）和西部（科隆湾）被确定为风险区域。由于预测的温度上升速率不同，潜在定殖时间和相应的生物风险增加在不同情景之间存在差异。
