State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 May 20;16(10):1775. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16101775.
Although visceral leishmaniasis disease is controlled overall in China, it remains a serious public health problem and remains fundamentally uncontrolled in Jiashi County, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. During 2005-2015, there were two outbreaks in Jiashi County. Assessing the influence of meteorological factors on visceral leishmaniasis incidence is essential for its monitoring and control. In this study, we applied generalized estimating equations to assess the impact of meteorological factors on visceral leishmaniasis risk from 2005 to 2015. We also compared meteorological factors among years with Kruskal-Wallis test to explore possible reasons behind the two outbreaks that occurred during our study period. We found that temperature and relative humidity had very significant associations with visceral leishmaniasis risk and there were interactions between these factors. Increasing temperature or decreasing relative humidity could increase the risk of visceral leishmaniasis events. The outbreaks investigated might have been related to low relative humidity and high temperatures. Our findings will support the rationale for visceral leishmaniasis control in China.
虽然内脏利什曼病在中国总体上得到了控制，但它仍然是一个严重的公共卫生问题，在新疆维吾尔自治区伽师县仍未得到根本控制。2005-2015 年期间，伽师县发生了两起疫情。评估气象因素对内脏利什曼病发病率的影响对于其监测和控制至关重要。在这项研究中，我们应用广义估计方程评估了 2005 年至 2015 年气象因素对内脏利什曼病风险的影响。我们还通过 Kruskal-Wallis 检验比较了各年份的气象因素，以探讨研究期间发生的两起疫情的可能原因。我们发现，温度和相对湿度与内脏利什曼病风险有非常显著的关联，并且这些因素之间存在相互作用。温度升高或相对湿度降低都会增加内脏利什曼病事件的风险。调查发现的疫情可能与低相对湿度和高温有关。我们的研究结果将为中国内脏利什曼病的控制提供依据。
