CGIAR/ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), PO Box 30709, Nairobi 00100, Kenya.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2011 Jan 13;369(1934):117-36. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0246.
Agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa faces daunting challenges, which climate change and increasing climate variability will compound in vulnerable areas. The impacts of a changing climate on agricultural production in a world that warms by 4°C or more are likely to be severe in places. The livelihoods of many croppers and livestock keepers in Africa are associated with diversity of options. The changes in crop and livestock production that are likely to result in a 4°C+ world will diminish the options available to most smallholders. In such a world, current crop and livestock varieties and agricultural practices will often be inadequate, and food security will be more difficult to achieve because of commodity price increases and local production shortfalls. While adaptation strategies exist, considerable institutional and policy support will be needed to implement them successfully on the scale required. Even in the 2°C+ world that appears inevitable, planning for and implementing successful adaptation strategies are critical if agricultural growth in the region is to occur, food security be achieved and household livelihoods be enhanced. As part of this effort, better understanding of the critical thresholds in global and African food systems requires urgent research.
撒哈拉以南非洲的农业发展面临严峻挑战，气候变化和日益增加的气候多变性将在脆弱地区加剧这些挑战。在全球变暖 4°C 或以上的情况下，气候变化对农业生产的影响在某些地区可能非常严重。非洲许多种植者和牲畜饲养者的生计与多种选择相关。在 4°C+的世界中，作物和牲畜生产的变化可能会减少大多数小农的选择。在这样的世界中，目前的作物和牲畜品种以及农业实践往往是不够的，由于商品价格上涨和当地生产短缺，粮食安全将更难实现。虽然存在适应战略，但需要大量的机构和政策支持才能成功地在所需规模上实施这些战略。即使在似乎不可避免的 2°C+世界中，如果要实现该地区的农业增长、实现粮食安全和增强家庭生计，规划和实施成功的适应战略也是至关重要的。在这方面的努力中，迫切需要开展研究，以更好地了解全球和非洲粮食系统的关键阈值。
