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明尼苏达州夏令时对车辆碰撞的影响。

The effects of daylight saving time on vehicle crashes in Minnesota.

机构信息

University of Minnesota, Department of Civil Engineering, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA.

出版信息

J Safety Res. 2010 Dec;41(6):513-20. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2010.10.006. Epub 2010 Nov 25.

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

Daylight saving time (DST), implemented as an energy saving policy, impacts many other aspects of life; one is road safety. Based on vehicle crash data in Minnesota from 2001 to 2007, this paper evaluates long- and short-term effects of DST on daily vehicle crashes.

METHOD

To provide evidence to explain the causes of more/fewer crashes in DST, we examine the impact of DST on crashes in four periods of a day: 3 a.m.-9 a.m., 9 a.m.-3 p.m., 3 p.m.-9 p.m., 9 p.m.-midnight. The effects of risk and exposure to traffic are also separated. Our statistical models not only include weather conditions and dummy variables for days in DST as independent variables, but also consider traffic volumes on major roads in different periods of a day. Our major finding is that the short-term effect of DST on crashes on the morning of the first DST is not statistically significant. Moreover, it is interesting to notice that while DST per se is associated with fewer crashes during dusk, this is in part offset because it is also associated with more traffic on roads (and hence more crashes). Our path analysis shows that overall DST reduces crashes.

IMPACT ON INDUSTRY

Daylight saving time can lead to fewer crashes on roads by providing better visibility for drivers.

摘要

简介

夏令时(DST)作为一项节能政策,对生活的许多其他方面都产生了影响;其中之一是道路安全。本文基于 2001 年至 2007 年明尼苏达州的车辆碰撞数据,评估了夏令时对日常车辆碰撞的长期和短期影响。

方法

为了解释夏令时导致更多/更少事故的原因,我们检查了夏令时对一天中四个时间段的碰撞的影响:凌晨 3 点至上午 9 点、上午 9 点至下午 3 点、下午 3 点至晚上 9 点、晚上 9 点至午夜。还分别考虑了风险和暴露于交通的影响。我们的统计模型不仅包含天气条件和夏令时的天数作为自变量,还考虑了不同时间段主要道路上的交通量。我们的主要发现是,夏令时对第一天早上碰撞的短期影响在统计上并不显著。此外,有趣的是,虽然夏令时本身与黄昏时的碰撞次数减少有关,但这在一定程度上被抵消了,因为它还与道路上更多的交通量(因此更多的碰撞)有关。我们的路径分析表明,夏令时总体上减少了碰撞。

对行业的影响

夏令时可以通过为驾驶员提供更好的能见度,减少道路上的碰撞。

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