Theoretical Ecology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
PLoS Comput Biol. 2010 Dec 9;6(12):e1001030. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1001030.
Infectious diseases often spread as spatial epidemic outbreak waves. A number of model studies have shown that such spatial pattern formation can have important consequences for the evolution of pathogens. Here, we show that such spatial patterns can cause cyclic evolutionary dynamics in selection for the length of the infectious period. The necessary reversal in the direction of selection is enabled by a qualitative change in the spatial pattern from epidemic waves to irregular local outbreaks. The spatial patterns are an emergent property of the epidemic system, and they are robust against changes in specific model assumptions. Our results indicate that emergent spatial patterns can act as a rich source for complexity in pathogen evolution.
传染病通常会以空间爆发波的形式传播。许多模型研究表明，这种空间模式的形成可能对病原体的进化产生重要影响。在这里，我们表明，这种空间模式会导致传染病期长度的选择出现周期性的进化动态。这种选择方向的反转是由传染病从爆发波到不规则局部爆发的空间模式的定性变化所产生的。空间模式是传染病系统的一个突现性质，并且它们对特定模型假设的变化具有鲁棒性。我们的研究结果表明，突现的空间模式可以成为病原体进化复杂性的丰富来源。
