Eddy D M
Center for Health Policy Research and Education, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.
Ann Intern Med. 1990 Aug 1;113(3):214-26. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-113-3-214.
Indirect evidence indicates that cervical cancer screening should reduce the incidence and mortality of invasive cervical cancer by about 90%. In the absence of screening, a 20-year-old average-risk woman has about a 250 in 10,000 chance of developing invasive cervical cancer during the rest of her life, and about a 118 in 10,000 chance of dying from it. Screening at least every 3 years from 20 to 75 years of age will decrease these probabilities by about 215 in 10,000 and 107 in 10,000, respectively, and will increase a 20-year-old woman's life expectancy by about 96 days. The particular age at which screening is begun (for example, 17 or 20 years), the requirement of several initial annual examinations before reducing the frequency, and screening every 1 or 2 years compared with every 3 years improves the effectiveness by less than 5%. Screening is recommended at least every 3 years from about age 20 to about age 65 years.
间接证据表明，宫颈癌筛查应能将浸润性宫颈癌的发病率和死亡率降低约90%。在未进行筛查的情况下，一名20岁的平均风险女性在其余生中患浸润性宫颈癌的几率约为万分之250，死于该病的几率约为万分之118。从20岁至75岁至少每3年进行一次筛查，将分别使这些概率降低约万分之215和万分之107，并将使一名20岁女性的预期寿命延长约96天。开始筛查的具体年龄（例如17岁或20岁）、在降低筛查频率之前需要进行几次初始年度检查，以及与每3年进行一次筛查相比，每1年或2年进行一次筛查，其有效性提高不到5%。建议从大约20岁至大约65岁至少每3年进行一次筛查。
