National Development and Research Institutes, Inc, New York, NY 10010, USA.
Am J Public Health. 2011 Feb;101(2):344-9. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2010.191759. Epub 2010 Dec 16.
We tested the hypothesis that higher rates of previous hard drug-related arrests predict lower rates of injection drug use.
We analyzed drug-related arrest data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting Program for 93 large US metropolitan statistical areas in 1992 to 2002 to predict previously published annual estimates of the number of injection drug users (IDUs) per 10,000 population.
In linear mixed-effects regression, hard drug-related arrest rates were positively associated (parameter = +1.59; SE = 0.57) with the population rate of IDUs in 1992 and were not associated with change in the IDU rate over time (parameter = -0.15; SE = 0.39).
Deterrence-based approaches to reducing drug use seem not to reduce IDU prevalence. Alternative approaches such as harm reduction, which prevents HIV transmission and increases referrals to treatment, may be a better foundation for policy.
我们验证了这样一个假设，即先前因涉毒被捕的比率较高预示着注射毒品使用的比率较低。
我们分析了联邦调查局犯罪报告统一项目中 1992 年至 2002 年来自 93 个美国大城市统计区的涉毒被捕数据，用以预测先前发表的每 10000 人口中注射吸毒者（IDU）的年度估计数。
在线性混合效应回归中，涉毒被捕率与 1992 年 IDU 人群率呈正相关（参数=+1.59；SE=0.57），与 IDU 率随时间的变化无关（参数=-0.15；SE=0.39）。
基于威慑的方法似乎并不能降低吸毒率。替代方法，如减少伤害，可预防 HIV 传播并增加对治疗的转介，可能是制定政策的更好基础。
