Olivia Judson is at the Dept of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK OX1 3PS.
Trends Ecol Evol. 1994 Jan;9(1):9-14. doi: 10.1016/0169-5347(94)90225-9.
Recent advances of three different kinds are driving a change in the way that modelling Is being done in ecology. First, the theory of chaos tells us that short-term predictions of nonlinear systems will be difficult, and long-term predictions will be impossible. The grave Implications this has for ecology are only just beginning to be understood. Second, ecologists have started to recognize the importance of local interactions between individuals in ecological systems. And third, improvements in computer power and software are making computers more inviting as a primary tool for modelling. The combination of these factors may have far-reaching consequences for ecological theory.
三种不同的最新进展正在改变生态学中建模的方式。首先，混沌理论告诉我们，非线性系统的短期预测将变得困难，而长期预测将是不可能的。这对生态学的严重影响才刚刚开始被理解。其次，生态学家已经开始认识到个体在生态系统中的局部相互作用的重要性。第三，计算机能力和软件的改进使计算机成为建模的主要工具更具吸引力。这些因素的结合可能对生态理论产生深远的影响。
