Evolutionary changes in growth rate and toxin production in the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa under a scenario of eutrophication and temperature increase.

Toxic blooms of the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa affect humans and animals in inland water systems worldwide, and it has been hypothesized that the development of these blooms will increase under the future scenario of global change, considering eutrophication and temperature increase as two important consequences. The importance of genetic adaptation, chance and history on evolution of growth rate, and toxin production of M. aeruginosa was studied under these new conditions. The experiment followed the idea of "replaying life's tape" by means of the simultaneous propagation of 15 independent isolates of three M. aeruginosa strains, which were grown under doubled nutrient concentration and temperature during c. 87 generations. Adaptation by new mutations that resulted in the enhancement of growth rate arose during propagation of derived cultures under the new environmental conditions was the main component of evolution; however, chance also contributed in a lesser extension to evolution of growth rate. Mutations were selected, displacing the wild-type ancestral genotypes. In contrast, the effect of selection on mutations affecting microcystin production was neutral. Chance and history were the pacemakers in evolution of toxin production. Although this study might be considered an oversimplification of the reality, it suggest that a future scenario of global change might lead to an increase in M. aeruginosa bloom frequency, but no predictions about the frequency of toxicity can be made.