Institute of Transport Economics, Gaustadalléen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway.
Accid Anal Prev. 2011 May;43(3):1204-18. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2011.01.002. Epub 2011 Feb 1.
A meta-analysis of 67 studies evaluating the effect of road safety campaigns on accidents is reported. A total of 119 results were extracted from the studies, which were reported in 12 different countries between 1975 and 2007. After allowing for publication bias and heterogeneity of effects, the weighted average effect of road safety campaigns is a 9% reduction in accidents (with 95% confidence that the weighted average is between -12 and -6%). To account for the variability of effects measured across studies, data were collected to characterise aspects of the campaign and evaluation design associated with each effect, and analysed to identify a model of seven campaign factors for testing by meta-regression. The model was tested using both fixed and random effect meta-regression, and dependency among effects was accounted for by aggregation. These analyses suggest positive associations between accident reduction and the use of personal communication or roadside media as part of a campaign delivery strategy. Campaigns with a drink-driving theme were also associated with greater accident reductions, while some of the analyses suggested that accompanying enforcement and short campaign duration (less than one month) are beneficial. Overall the results are consistent with the idea that campaigns can be more effective in the short term if the message is delivered with personal communication in a way that is proximal in space and time to the behaviour targeted by the campaign.
本文对 67 项评估道路安全运动对事故影响的研究进行了荟萃分析。从 1975 年至 2007 年在 12 个不同国家开展的研究中提取了总计 119 项结果。在考虑到发表偏倚和效果异质性后，道路安全运动的加权平均效果为事故减少 9%（置信区间为-12%至-6%）。为了说明在各研究中测量的效果的可变性，收集了数据以描述与每个效果相关的运动和评估设计的各个方面，并进行了分析以确定七个运动因素的模型，以便通过荟萃回归进行测试。使用固定和随机效应荟萃回归对该模型进行了测试，并通过聚合考虑了效果之间的依存关系。这些分析表明，减少事故与作为运动实施策略一部分的个人交流或路边媒体的使用之间存在积极关联。以酒后驾车为主题的运动也与更大的事故减少相关，而某些分析表明，伴随执法和运动持续时间较短（不到一个月）是有益的。总体而言，这些结果与以下观点一致，即如果信息通过与运动目标行为在空间和时间上接近的个人交流来传递，那么运动在短期内可能会更有效。
