National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2011 Mar;5 Suppl 1:S143-50. doi: 10.1001/dmp.2011.20.
The objective of the study was to model urban evacuation into surrounding communities after the detonation of an improvised nuclear device (IND) to assist rural and suburban planners in understanding and effectively planning to address the effects of population surges.
Researchers developed parameters for how far evacuees would travel to escape disasters and factors that would influence choice of destination from studies of historical evacuations, surveys of citizens' evacuation intentions in hypothetical disasters, and semistructured interviews with key informants and emergency preparedness experts. Those parameters became the inputs to a "push-pull" model of how many people would flee in the 4 scenarios and where they would go.
The expanded model predicted significant population movements from the New York City borough of Manhattan and counties within 20 km of Manhattan to counties within a 150-mi radius of the assumed IND detonation. It also predicted that even in some communities located far from Manhattan, arriving evacuees would increase the population needing services by 50% to 150%.
The results suggest that suburban and rural communities could be overwhelmed by evacuees from their center city following an IND detonation. They also highlight the urgency of educating and communicating with the public about radiation hazards to mitigate panic and hysteria, anticipating the ways in which a mass exodus may disrupt or even cripple rescue and response efforts, and devising creative ways to exercise and drill for an event about which there is great denial and fatalism.
本研究旨在模拟简易核装置（IND）爆炸后城市居民向周边社区的疏散情况，以帮助农村和郊区规划者了解并有效规划应对人口激增的影响。
研究人员通过对历史疏散情况的研究、对公民在假设灾害中疏散意愿的调查以及对关键信息提供者和应急准备专家的半结构化访谈，确定了疏散者逃离灾害的距离以及影响目的地选择的因素等参数。这些参数成为了“推拉”模型的输入，用于预测在 4 种情景下有多少人会逃离以及他们会去哪里。
扩展后的模型预测，在假设的 IND 爆炸发生后，纽约市曼哈顿区和曼哈顿 20 公里范围内的县的人口将大量迁移，同时预测即使在距离曼哈顿较远的一些社区，到达的疏散人员也会使需要服务的人口增加 50%至 150%。
研究结果表明，在简易核装置爆炸后，郊区和农村社区可能会被来自中心城市的疏散人员淹没。研究还强调了向公众普及辐射危害知识和进行沟通的紧迫性，以减轻恐慌和歇斯底里，预测大规模撤离可能会对救援和应对工作造成的干扰甚至瘫痪，并制定创造性的方法，以应对人们普遍否认和宿命论的事件进行演习和训练。
