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巴基斯坦平民自杀式恐怖主义的流行病学模式。

Epidemiological patterns of suicide terrorism in the civilian Pakistani population.

机构信息

Department of Emergency Medicine, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.

出版信息

Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2011 Sep;18(3):205-11. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2011.555558. Epub 2011 May 24.

Abstract

In this study, we assessed the epidemiological patterns of suicide terrorism in the civilian population of Pakistan. Information about suicide terrorism-related events, deaths and injuries was extracted from the South-Asian Terrorism Portal (SATP) for the period from 2002 to October 2009. Of 198 events, civilians were involved in 194 events. Civilians accounted for 74.1% (N = 2017) of those who died and 93.8% (N = 6129) of those who were injured. In nine districts, mortality rates were more than one death per 100,000 inhabitants per year. The yearly trend showed a shift of attack targets from foreigners and sectarian targets in 2002-2005 to security forces or general public in 2006-2009. Attacks on public installations (mosques) or political gatherings resulted in a significantly greater (P ≤ 0.02) number of deaths (22 vs. 8) and injuries (59 vs. 24) per event compared with security installations. These results show that prevention might focus on political negotiation with armed groups and that appropriate measures should be taken to protect mosques and political gatherings.

摘要

在这项研究中,我们评估了巴基斯坦平民群体中自杀式恐怖主义的流行模式。2002 年至 2009 年 10 月期间,自杀式恐怖主义相关事件、死亡和受伤的信息是从南亚恐怖主义门户(SATP)提取的。在 198 起事件中,平民参与了 194 起事件。平民占死亡人数的 74.1%(N=2017),占受伤人数的 93.8%(N=6129)。在九个地区,死亡率超过每年每 10 万人死亡一人。年度趋势显示,攻击目标从 2002-2005 年的外国人和教派目标转移到 2006-2009 年的安全部队或普通公众。针对公共设施(清真寺)或政治集会的袭击导致每起事件的死亡人数(22 人对 8 人)和受伤人数(59 人对 24 人)显著增加(P≤0.02)。这些结果表明,预防工作可能需要侧重于与武装团体进行政治谈判,并应采取适当措施保护清真寺和政治集会。

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