建模薄荷禁令对美国吸烟流行率和归因于吸烟死亡人数的未来影响。
Modeling the future effects of a menthol ban on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the United States.
机构信息
Department of Economics, University of Baltimore, Baltimore, MD, USA.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 2011 Jul;101(7):1236-40. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2011.300179. Epub 2011 May 12.
Abstract
We used a validated smoking simulation model and data from the 2003 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey to project the impact that a US menthol ban would have on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. In a scenario in which 30% of menthol smokers quit and 30% of those who would have initiated as menthol smokers do not initiate, by 2050 the relative reduction in smoking prevalence would be 9.7% overall and 24.8% for Blacks; deaths averted would be 633,252 overall and 237,317 for Blacks.
摘要
我们使用了经过验证的吸烟模拟模型和 2003 年烟草使用补充调查的当前人口调查数据，以预测美国薄荷醇禁令对吸烟流行率和吸烟归因死亡的影响。在一个场景中，30%的薄荷醇吸烟者戒烟，而 30%原本会成为薄荷醇吸烟者的人不再开始吸烟，到 2050 年，吸烟流行率的相对减少将达到 9.7%，黑人的比例为 24.8%；总体避免的死亡人数将达到 633252 人，黑人的比例为 237317 人。
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