Levy David T, Cadham Christopher J, Sanchez-Romero Luz Maria, Knoll Marie, Travis Nargiz, Yuan Zhe, Li Yameng, Mistry Ritesh, Douglas Clifford E, Tam Jamie, Sertkaya Aylin, Warner Kenneth E, Meza Rafael
Department of Oncology, Georgetown University-Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Washington, DC, USA.
Department of Health Behavior and Health Education, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Nicotine Tob Res. 2021 Oct 7;23(11):1911-1920. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntab121.
The US Food and Drug Administration announced its intention to ban menthol in cigarettes. However, information is needed on how a federal ban would affect population health.
We conducted an expert elicitation to gauge the impact of a menthol cigarette and cigar ban in the United States. We developed and pilot tested a questionnaire that focused on tobacco use transitions of current smokers (age 18-24 menthol, age 35-54 menthol, and age 35-54 nonmenthol) and potential menthol smokers (age 12-24). Using a structured expert elicitation, we estimated mean net transitions under a ban from cigarette use to combustible tobacco product, smokeless tobacco, novel nicotine delivery product (NNDPs, such as e-cigarettes) use, or no tobacco use.
Eleven experts provided responses. Of those ages 12-24 who would have initiated menthol cigarette use in the absence of a ban, the experts estimated that 41% would still initiate combustible products under a ban, while 18% would initiate with NNDPs and 39% would not initiate regular tobacco use. Combustible use by menthol smokers ages 35-54 was expected to decline by 20% postban relative to preban rates, half switching to NNDPs and half quitting all tobacco use. Menthol smokers ages 18-24 were expected to reduce combustible use by 30%, with 16% switching to NNDPs. Greater reductions in combustible use were estimated for African Americans across the three age groups. Negligible impacts were expected for current adult nonmenthol smokers.
According to expert opinion, a menthol ban is expected to substantially reduce smoking initiation and combustible tobacco product use among current menthol smokers.
The US Food and Drug Administration recently announced its intention to ban menthol in cigarettes, but information on the potential impact on smoking and other nicotine product use is limited. We conducted an expert elicitation to gauge the impact of a menthol cigarette and cigar ban in the United States. A panel of experts estimated that menthol smokers ages 35-54 would reduce combustible tobacco use by 20%, with half switching to e-cigarettes and half quitting all nicotine use. Larger reductions were expected at younger ages, and menthol smoking initiation was reduced by 59% with 18% instead using e-cigarettes. African Americans were expected to have greater reductions in combustible tobacco use than the rest of the population.
美国食品药品监督管理局宣布有意禁止香烟中的薄荷醇。然而，关于联邦禁令将如何影响公众健康的信息尚需了解。
我们进行了一次专家意见征集，以评估美国禁止薄荷醇香烟和雪茄的影响。我们制定并进行了预测试一份问卷，该问卷聚焦于当前吸烟者（18 - 24岁吸薄荷醇香烟者、35 - 54岁吸薄荷醇香烟者以及35 - 54岁不吸薄荷醇香烟者）和潜在薄荷醇吸烟者（12 - 24岁）的烟草使用转变情况。通过结构化的专家意见征集，我们估计了在禁令下从使用香烟转变为使用可燃烟草制品、无烟烟草、新型尼古丁递送产品（如电子烟等新型尼古丁递送产品）或不再使用烟草的平均净转变情况。
11位专家提供了回复。在那些若没有禁令就会开始吸薄荷醇香烟的12 - 24岁人群中，专家估计在禁令下41%的人仍会开始使用可燃产品，18%的人会开始使用新型尼古丁递送产品，39%的人不会开始常规烟草使用。预计35 - 54岁的薄荷醇吸烟者在禁令实施后相对于禁令实施前，可燃烟草的使用量将下降20%，其中一半转向新型尼古丁递送产品，一半戒掉所有烟草使用。预计18 - 24岁的薄荷醇吸烟者可燃烟草使用量将减少30%，其中16%转向新型尼古丁递送产品。在这三个年龄组中，预计非裔美国人可燃烟草使用量的减少幅度更大。预计当前成年非薄荷醇吸烟者受到的影响可忽略不计。
根据专家意见，预计薄荷醇禁令将大幅减少当前薄荷醇吸烟者的吸烟起始率和可燃烟草制品的使用。
美国食品药品监督管理局最近宣布有意禁止香烟中的薄荷醇，但关于其对吸烟及其他尼古丁产品使用的潜在影响的信息有限。我们进行了一次专家意见征集，以评估美国禁止薄荷醇香烟和雪茄的影响。一组专家估计，35 - 54岁的薄荷醇吸烟者可燃烟草使用量将减少20%，其中一半转向电子烟，一半戒掉所有尼古丁使用。预计在较年轻年龄段减少幅度更大，吸薄荷醇香烟的起始率降低59%，其中18%转而使用电子烟。预计非裔美国人可燃烟草使用量的减少幅度将大于其他人群。
