Department of Economics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
Demography. 2011 May;48(2):783-811. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0030-7.
High ratios of males to females in China, which have historically concerned researchers (Sen 1990), have increased in the wake of China's one-child policy, which began in 1979. Chinese policymakers are currently attempting to correct the imbalance in the sex ratio through initiatives that provide financial compensation to parents with daughters. Other scholars have advocated a relaxation of the one-child policy to allow more parents to have a son without engaging in sex selection. In this article, I present a model of fertility choice when parents have access to a sex-selection technology and face a mandated fertility limit. By exploiting variation in fines levied in China for unsanctioned births, I estimate the relative price of a son and daughter for mothers observed in China's census data (1982-2000). I find that a couple's first son is worth 1.42 years of income more than a first daughter, and the premium is highest among less-educated mothers and families engaged in agriculture. Simulations indicate that a subsidy of 1 year of income to families without a son would reduce the number of "missing girls" by 67% but impose an annual cost of 1.8% of Chinese gross domestic product (GDP). Alternatively, a three-child policy would reduce the number of "missing girls" by 56% but increase the fertility rate by 35%.
中国历史上一直存在男性与女性比例失衡的问题（Sen 1990），而自 1979 年开始实施的独生子女政策使得这一问题进一步加剧。中国的决策者们目前正试图通过提供经济补偿给有女儿的父母的方式来纠正性别比例失衡的问题。其他学者则主张放宽独生子女政策，允许更多的父母选择生育儿子而无需进行性别选择。在本文中，我提出了一个当父母可以使用性别选择技术且面临强制性生育限制时的生育选择模型。通过利用中国对未经批准的生育所征收的罚款的差异，我估计了中国人口普查数据（1982-2000）中母亲所观察到的儿子和女儿的相对价格。我发现，一对夫妇的第一个儿子比第一个女儿多值 1.42 年的收入，而且在受教育程度较低的母亲和从事农业的家庭中，这一溢价最高。模拟表明，向没有儿子的家庭提供 1 年的收入补贴将使“失踪女孩”的数量减少 67%，但会造成中国国内生产总值（GDP）的 1.8%的年度成本。或者，三孩政策将使“失踪女孩”的数量减少 56%，但将生育率提高 35%。
