Tuljapurkar S, Li N, Feldman M W
Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies, Department of Bioloical Sciences, Stanford University, CA 94305.
Science. 1995 Feb 10;267(5199):874-6. doi: 10.1126/science.7846529.
In China in recent years, male live births have exceeded those of females by amounts far greater than those that occur naturally in human populations, a trend with significant demographic consequences. The resulting imbalance in the first-marriage market is estimated to be about 1 million males per year after 2010. These "excess" males were not easily accommodated in models with substantial changes in first-marriage patterns. The current sex ratio at birth has little effect on a couple's probability of having at least one son, so future increases in the sex ratio may well occur, especially given increasing access to sex-selective abortion.
近年来在中国，男性出生数量超过女性的幅度远远高于人类自然出生性别比例，这一趋势带来了重大的人口统计学后果。预计2010年之后初婚市场每年会出现约100万男性过剩。这些“过剩”男性很难被纳入初婚模式有显著变化的模型中。目前的出生性别比对于夫妻生育至少一个儿子的概率影响不大，因此未来性别比可能会继续上升，特别是考虑到选择性堕胎的可及性不断提高。
