University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA.
Psychon Bull Rev. 2011 Aug;18(4):682-9. doi: 10.3758/s13423-011-0088-7.
In recent years, statisticians and psychologists have provided the critique that p-values do not capture the evidence afforded by data and are, consequently, ill suited for analysis in scientific endeavors. The issue is particular salient in the assessment of the recent evidence provided for ESP by Bem (2011) in the mainstream Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Wagenmakers, Wetzels, Borsboom, and van der Maas (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100, 426-432, 2011) have provided an alternative Bayes factor assessment of Bem's data, but their assessment was limited to examining each experiment in isolation. We show here that the variant of the Bayes factor employed by Wagenmakers et al. is inappropriate for making assessments across multiple experiments, and cannot be used to gain an accurate assessment of the total evidence in Bem's data. We develop a meta-analytic Bayes factor that describes how researchers should update their prior beliefs about the odds of hypotheses in light of data across several experiments. We find that the evidence that people can feel the future with neutral and erotic stimuli to be slight, with Bayes factors of 3.23 and 1.57, respectively. There is some evidence, however, for the hypothesis that people can feel the future with emotionally valenced nonerotic stimuli, with a Bayes factor of about 40. Although this value is certainly noteworthy, we believe it is orders of magnitude lower than what is required to overcome appropriate skepticism of ESP.
近年来，统计学家和心理学家提出批评意见，认为 p 值不能捕捉数据提供的证据，因此不适合用于科学研究中的分析。这个问题在评估 Bem（2011 年）在主流的《人格与社会心理学杂志》中为 ESP 提供的最新证据时尤为突出。Wagenmakers、Wetzels、Borsboom 和 van der Maas（《人格与社会心理学杂志》，100，426-432，2011 年）对 Bem 的数据进行了替代贝叶斯因子评估，但他们的评估仅限于单独检查每个实验。我们在这里表明，Wagenmakers 等人使用的贝叶斯因子变体不适合在多个实验中进行评估，并且不能用于准确评估 Bem 数据中的总证据。我们开发了一种元分析贝叶斯因子，描述了研究人员应该如何根据多个实验的数据更新他们对假设概率的先验信念。我们发现，人们可以用中性和色情刺激来感知未来的证据是微弱的，贝叶斯因子分别为 3.23 和 1.57。然而，有一些证据表明，人们可以用情感上有价值的非色情刺激来感知未来，贝叶斯因子约为 40。尽管这个数值确实值得注意，但我们认为，与克服对 ESP 的适当怀疑相比，这要低几个数量级。
