University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station A8000, Austin, TX 78712, USA.
Behav Res Ther. 2011 Oct;49(10):622-7. doi: 10.1016/j.brat.2011.06.009. Epub 2011 Jun 28.
Use classification tree analysis with lagged predictors to determine empirically derived cut-points for identifying adolescent girls at risk for future onset of threshold, subthreshold, and partial eating disorders and test for interactions between risk factors that may implicate qualitatively distinct risk pathways.
Data were drawn from a prospective study of 496 adolescent girls who completed diagnostic interviews and surveys annually for 8 years.
Body dissatisfaction emerged as the most potent predictor; adolescent girls in the upper 24% of body dissatisfaction showed a 4.0-fold increased incidence of eating disorder onset (24% vs. 6%). Among participants in the high body dissatisfaction branch, those in the upper 32% of depressive symptoms showed a 2.9-fold increased incidence of onset (43% vs. 15%). Among participants in the low body dissatisfaction branch, those in the upper 12% of dieting showed a 3.6-fold increased incidence onset (18% vs. 5%).
This three-way interaction suggests a body dissatisfaction pathway to eating disorder onset that is amplified by depressive symptoms, as well as a pathway characterized by self-reported dieting among young women who are more satisfied with their bodies. It may be possible to increase the effectiveness of prevention programs by targeting each of these qualitatively distinct risk groups, rather than only individuals with a single risk factor.
使用具有滞后预测因子的分类树分析，确定识别未来出现阈限、亚阈限和部分进食障碍的青少年女孩的经验衍生切点，并检验可能暗示不同风险途径的风险因素之间的相互作用。
数据来自对 496 名青少年女孩进行的一项前瞻性研究，这些女孩在 8 年内每年完成诊断访谈和调查。
身体不满成为最有力的预测因子；身体不满程度处于前 24%的青少年女孩出现饮食障碍发病的风险增加了 4 倍（24%对 6%）。在高身体不满组的参与者中，抑郁症状处于前 32%的人发病风险增加了 2.9 倍（43%对 15%）。在低身体不满组的参与者中，节食程度处于前 12%的人发病风险增加了 3.6 倍（18%对 5%）。
这种三向相互作用表明，身体不满是饮食障碍发病的一种途径，这种途径会因抑郁症状而加剧，同时还存在一种途径，即对身体更满意的年轻女性自我报告节食。通过针对这些不同的风险群体，而不是只针对具有单一风险因素的个体，可能会提高预防计划的有效性。
