Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis, School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia.
PLoS One. 2011;6(7):e22998. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0022998. Epub 2011 Jul 29.
Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.
当时间和资源紧张，或者我们面临需要快速解决方案的新难题时，专家判断至关重要。好的建议可以拯救生命和大量资金。通常，专家是通过其资格、记录和经验来定义的。社会期望假说认为，更受尊敬和经验更丰富的专家将提供更好的建议。我们要求专家预测他们在一系列问题上的表现，以及他们的同行的表现。结果表明，专家彼此的看法是一致的，但不幸的是，排名并不能很好地指导实际表现。如果技术决策经常使用广泛定义的专家组、结构化的问题协议和反馈，那么专家建议将更加准确。
