Wallach Arian D, Lundgren Erick J
School of Biology and Environmental Science, Faculty of Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Center for Open Science and Synthesis in Ecology and Evolution, Department of Biology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Bioscience. 2025 Apr 10;75(8):615-627. doi: 10.1093/biosci/biaf046. eCollection 2025 Aug.
Over half of Australia's threatened and extinct endemic mammal species have been attributed to introduced red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and cats (Felis silvestris catus). But this claim has so far been based on expert opinion. We conducted a timeline analysis, systematic review, and meta-analysis to assess whether the attribution of decline and extinction to these predators is based on evidence. Records for 43.6% and 19.6% of populations did not confirm that extinctions occurred after fox and cat arrival, respectively. Most threatened species have been attributed to these predators without supportive population studies with data (76.1% of species attributed to foxes, and 79.7% to cats). The meta-analysis showed a negative correlation between threatened mammal and fox abundance for spatial but not for temporal correlations, and we found no evidence for a correlation with cats. We conclude that the hypothesis that foxes and cats cause extinctions has come to be accepted with little evidence.
澳大利亚超过半数受到威胁和已灭绝的本土哺乳动物物种都被认为是由引入的赤狐(赤狐属)和猫(家猫)造成的。但迄今为止,这一说法一直基于专家意见。我们进行了时间线分析、系统评价和荟萃分析,以评估将物种数量下降和灭绝归因于这些捕食者是否有证据支持。分别有43.6%和19.6%的种群记录未证实灭绝是在狐狸和猫到来之后发生的。大多数受到威胁的物种被归因于这些捕食者,但却没有基于数据的支持性种群研究(76.1%的物种被归因于狐狸,79.7%被归因于猫)。荟萃分析表明,对于空间相关性而言,受威胁哺乳动物与狐狸数量之间呈负相关,但对于时间相关性则不然,而且我们没有发现与猫存在相关性的证据。我们得出结论,狐狸和猫导致物种灭绝这一假设在几乎没有证据的情况下就已被人们接受。