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利用老年性犯罪者改进静态-99 和静态-2002 的预测准确性:修订后的年龄权重。

Improving the predictive accuracy of Static-99 and Static-2002 with older sex offenders: revised age weights.

机构信息

Public Safety Canada, 340 Laurier Avenue West, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.

出版信息

Sex Abuse. 2012 Feb;24(1):64-101. doi: 10.1177/1079063211409951. Epub 2011 Aug 15.

Abstract

Actuarial risk assessment scales and their associated recidivism estimates are generally developed on samples of offenders whose average age is well below 50 years. Criminal behavior of all types declines with age; consequently, actuarial scales tend to overestimate recidivism for older offenders. The current study aimed to develop a revised scoring system for two risk assessment tools (Static-99 and Static-2002) that would more accurately describe older offenders' risk of recidivism. Using data from 8,390 sex offenders derived from 24 separate samples, age was found to add incremental predictive validity to both Static-99 and Static-2002. After creating new age weights, the resulting instruments (Static-99R and Static-2002R) had only slightly higher relative predictive accuracy. The absolute recidivism estimates, however, provided a substantially better fit for older offenders than the recidivism estimates from the original scales. We encourage evaluators to adopt the revised scales with the new age weights.

摘要

精算风险评估量表及其相关的累犯估计通常是在平均年龄远低于 50 岁的罪犯样本上开发的。所有类型的犯罪行为都会随着年龄的增长而下降;因此,精算量表往往会高估老年罪犯的累犯率。本研究旨在为两种风险评估工具(静态-99 和静态-2002)制定一个修订的评分系统,以更准确地描述老年罪犯的累犯风险。使用来自 24 个独立样本的 8390 名性犯罪者的数据,发现年龄对静态-99 和静态-2002 都有额外的预测有效性。在创建新的年龄权重后,新的工具(静态-99R 和静态-2002R)只有略高的相对预测准确性。然而,绝对累犯估计值比原始量表的累犯估计值更适合老年罪犯。我们鼓励评估者采用带有新年龄权重的修订量表。

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