Department of Statistics, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Aug 30;108(35):14527-32. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1015946108. Epub 2011 Aug 19.
Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949-1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.
鼠疫（由鼠疫耶尔森菌引起）是一种人畜共患的传染病，在全球啮齿动物种群中具有储存库。利用哈萨克斯坦半个世纪（1949-1995 年）的独特鼠疫动态数据，包括主要啮齿动物宿主（大沙鼠）、主要媒介（跳蚤）、人类病例和外部（气候）条件的数据，我们分析了完整的生态流行病学（腺鼠疫）鼠疫系统。我们表明，两个流行病学阈值数量起着关键作用：一个与宿主储存库动态有关的阈值，另一个与鼠疫细菌溢出到人类种群有关的阈值。
