University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
J Interpers Violence. 2012 Jan;27(2):222-38. doi: 10.1177/0886260511416472. Epub 2011 Aug 22.
Both desistance research and strengths-based approaches to offender rehabilitation suggest that attempts to reduce sex offender recidivism should attend to an offender's release environment. Recent research has demonstrated that better quality release planning is associated with reduced recidivism; however, whether release planning contributes significant incremental validity in predicting recidivism over and above static and dynamic risk factors is unclear. In the present study, release planning was retrospectively assessed for a sample of child molesters (n = 196) who had been released into the community following completion of a prison-based treatment program and its relative contribution to recidivism risk prediction was investigated. The average follow-up period was 11.08 years, during which 13.3% of the sample were convicted of a new sexual offence. Hierarchical Cox regression analyses showed that release planning contributed additional predictive validity for sexual recidivism after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Findings suggest that assessment of release planning might improve accuracy of sex offender risk assessments and that improved release planning should contribute to reductions in recidivism.
无论是犯罪中止研究还是基于优势的罪犯康复方法都表明，减少性犯罪再犯的尝试应该关注罪犯的出狱环境。最近的研究表明，更好的出狱规划与降低再犯率有关；然而，出狱规划是否在预测再犯方面除了静态和动态风险因素之外还有显著的增量有效性还不清楚。在本研究中，对一组在完成基于监狱的治疗计划后被释放到社区的儿童性侵犯者（n = 196）进行了回顾性评估，研究了出狱规划对再犯风险预测的相对贡献。平均随访期为 11.08 年，在此期间，样本中有 13.3%的人被判犯有新的性犯罪。分层 Cox 回归分析表明，在控制了静态和动态风险因素后，出狱规划对性犯罪再犯的预测有额外的有效性。研究结果表明，评估出狱规划可能会提高性犯罪者风险评估的准确性，而改善出狱规划应该有助于降低再犯率。
