Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Aug 23;108(34):13963-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1106382108. Epub 2011 Aug 22.
Morocco's argan oil is now the most expensive edible oil in the world. High-value argan markets have sparked a bonanza of argan activity. Nongovernmental organizations, international and domestic development agencies, and argan oil cooperatives aggressively promote the win-win aim of simultaneously benefiting local people and the health of the argan forest. This paper tests some of these win-win claims. Analysis of a panel of detailed household data suggests that the boom has enabled some rural households to increase consumption, increase their goat herds (which bodes poorly for the argan forest), and send their girls to secondary school. The boom has predictably made households vigilant guardians of fruit on the tree, but it has not incited investments in longer term tree and forest health. We evaluate landscape-level impacts of these changes using commune-level data on educational enrollment and normalized difference vegetation index data over the period from 1981 to 2009. The results of the mesoanalysis of enrollment are consistent with the microanalysis: the argan boom seems to have improved educational outcomes, especially for girls. Our normalized difference vegetation index analysis, however, suggests that booming argan prices have not improved the forest and may have even induced degradation. We conclude by exploring the dynamic interactions between argan markets, local institutions, rural household welfare, and forest conservation and sustainability.
摩洛哥的阿甘油现在是世界上最昂贵的食用油。高价值的阿甘市场引发了阿甘活动的繁荣。非政府组织、国际和国内发展机构以及阿甘油合作社积极推动双赢的目标，即同时造福当地人民和阿甘森林的健康。本文检验了其中一些双赢的说法。对一组详细的家庭数据的分析表明，繁荣使一些农村家庭能够增加消费，增加他们的山羊群（这对阿甘森林来说不是好兆头），并让他们的女孩上中学。繁荣使家庭自然而然地成为树上果实的警惕守护者，但它并没有激发对树木和森林健康的长期投资。我们使用 1981 年至 2009 年期间关于教育入学率的公社级数据和归一化差异植被指数数据，评估了这些变化对景观水平的影响。入学率的中观分析结果与微观分析一致：阿甘繁荣似乎改善了教育成果，特别是对女孩而言。然而，我们的归一化差异植被指数分析表明，繁荣的阿甘价格并没有改善森林，甚至可能导致退化。最后，我们探讨了阿甘市场、当地机构、农村家庭福利和森林保护与可持续性之间的动态相互作用。
