Menotti A, Keys A, Blackburn H, Aravanis C, Dontas A, Fidanza F, Giampaoli S, Karvonen M, Kromhout D, Nedeljkovic S
Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Rome, Italy.
Int J Epidemiol. 1990 Jun;19(2):309-15. doi: 10.1093/ije/19.2.309.
Twelve cohorts of men aged 40-59 for a total of 8287 individuals in six countries (Finland, the Netherlands, Italy, Yugoslavia, Greece and Japan) were examined in the late 1950s or early 1960s for the measurement of some risk factors and then followed up for mortality and causes of death through 20 years. Large differences in 20-year death rates from stroke were recorded among cohorts, with the highest levels in the pool of the Yugoslavia (67 per 1000) and Japanese cohorts (62 per 1000) and the lowest in the Dutch cohort (22 per 1000). The simple linear correlation (among cohorts) of stroke mortality on mean levels at entry of some factors showed inverse significant coefficients for systolic (-0.63) diastolic (-0.51) and mean blood pressure (-0.72), and for serum cholesterol (-0.72), whereas no significant coefficients were found for mean body mass index, mean cigarette consumption and mean physical activity. The Cox model solved for six national pools of cohorts showed that only age and mean blood pressure carry significant positive coefficients, whereas all the other available factors (cigarette consumption, serum cholesterol, body mass index, physical activity) did not approach significant levels except the negative coefficients of smoking habits in Greece.
20世纪50年代末或60年代初，对来自六个国家（芬兰、荷兰、意大利、南斯拉夫、希腊和日本）的12组年龄在40至59岁之间的男性进行了检查，共计8287人，以测量一些风险因素，然后对其进行了20年的死亡率和死亡原因随访。各队列之间记录的20年中风死亡率存在很大差异，南斯拉夫队列（每1000人中有67人）和日本队列（每1000人中有62人）的死亡率最高，而荷兰队列的死亡率最低（每1000人中有22人）。某些因素进入时平均水平与中风死亡率（队列间）的简单线性相关显示，收缩压（-0.63）、舒张压（-0.51）和平均血压（-0.72）以及血清胆固醇（-0.72）的系数呈显著负相关，而平均体重指数、平均香烟消费量和平均身体活动量的系数则无显著意义。对六个国家队列汇总数据求解的Cox模型表明，只有年龄和平均血压具有显著的正系数，而所有其他可用因素（香烟消费量、血清胆固醇、体重指数、身体活动量）除希腊吸烟习惯的负系数外，均未达到显著水平。
