Centro de Zoología Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina.
PLoS One. 2011;6(10):e25718. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0025718. Epub 2011 Oct 3.
Biological invasion and climate change pose challenges to biodiversity conservation in the 21(st) century. Invasive species modify ecosystem structure and functioning and climatic changes are likely to produce invasive species' range shifts pushing some populations into protected areas. The American Bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) is one of the hundred worst invasive species in the world. Native from the southeast of USA, it has colonized more than 75% of South America where it has been reported as a highly effective predator, competitor and vector of amphibian diseases.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We modeled the potential distribution of the bullfrog in its native range based on different climate models and green-house gases emission scenarios, and projected the results onto South America for the years of 2050 and 2080. We also overlaid projected models onto the South American network of protected areas. Our results indicate a slight decrease in potential suitable area for bullfrog invasion, although protected areas will become more climatically suitable. Therefore, invasion of these sites is forecasted.
CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: We provide new evidence supporting the vulnerability of the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot to bullfrog invasion and call attention to optimal future climatic conditions of the Andean-Patagonian forest, eastern Paraguay, and northwestern Bolivia, where invasive populations have not been found yet. We recommend several management and policy strategies to control bullfrog invasion and argue that these would be possible if based on appropriate articulation among government agencies, NGOs, research institutions and civil society.
生物入侵和气候变化给 21 世纪的生物多样性保护带来了挑战。入侵物种改变了生态系统的结构和功能，气候变化可能导致入侵物种的范围转移，将一些种群推向保护区。美洲牛蛙（Lithobates catesbeianus）是世界上最具破坏力的 100 种入侵物种之一。原产于美国东南部，它已经在南美洲的 75%以上地区繁殖，在那里它被报道为一种非常有效的捕食者、竞争者和两栖动物疾病的传播者。
方法/主要发现：我们根据不同的气候模型和温室气体排放情景，对牛蛙在其原生范围内的潜在分布进行建模，并将结果投射到南美洲，预测 2050 年和 2080 年的情况。我们还将预测模型叠加到南美洲的保护区网络上。我们的研究结果表明，牛蛙入侵的潜在适宜区略有减少，尽管保护区的气候将变得更加适宜。因此，预计这些地区将会受到入侵。
结论/意义：我们提供了新的证据，支持大西洋森林生物多样性热点地区容易受到牛蛙入侵的影响，并提请注意安第斯-巴塔哥尼亚森林、东巴拉圭和玻利维亚西北部的未来最佳气候条件，这些地区尚未发现入侵种群。我们建议采取一些管理和政策策略来控制牛蛙的入侵，并认为如果政府机构、非政府组织、研究机构和民间社会之间能够适当协调，这些策略是可行的。
