School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Environ Health Perspect. 2012 Feb;120(2):260-6. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1003270. Epub 2011 Oct 20.
Understanding how socioecological factors affect the transmission of dengue fever (DF) may help to develop an early warning system of DF.
We examined the impact of socioecological factors on the transmission of DF and assessed potential predictors of locally acquired and overseas-acquired cases of DF in Queensland, Australia.
We obtained data from Queensland Health on the numbers of notified DF cases by local government area (LGA) in Queensland for the period 1 January 2002 through 31 December 2005. Data on weather and the socioeconomic index were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was fitted at the LGA level to quantify the relationship between DF and socioecological factors.
Our estimates suggest an increase in locally acquired DF of 6% [95% credible interval (CI): 2%, 11%] and 61% (95% CI: 2%, 241%) in association with a 1-mm increase in average monthly rainfall and a 1°C increase in average monthly maximum temperature between 2002 and 2005, respectively. By contrast, overseas-acquired DF cases increased by 1% (95% CI: 0%, 3%) and by 1% (95% CI: 0%, 2%) in association with a 1-mm increase in average monthly rainfall and a 1-unit increase in average socioeconomic index, respectively.
Socioecological factors appear to influence the transmission of DF in Queensland, but the drivers of locally acquired and overseas-acquired DF may differ. DF risk is spatially clustered with different patterns for locally acquired and overseas-acquired cases.
了解社会生态因素如何影响登革热（DF）的传播，可能有助于建立 DF 的预警系统。
我们研究了社会生态因素对 DF 传播的影响，并评估了澳大利亚昆士兰州本地和境外输入性 DF 病例的潜在预测因素。
我们从昆士兰州卫生部门获得了 2002 年 1 月 1 日至 2005 年 12 月 31 日期间按地方政府管辖区（LGA）报告的登革热病例数量的数据。天气数据和社会经济指数数据分别来自澳大利亚气象局和澳大利亚统计局。采用贝叶斯空间条件自回归模型，在 LGA 水平上量化 DF 与社会生态因素之间的关系。
我们的估计表明，与 2002 年至 2005 年间平均每月降雨量增加 1 毫米和平均每月最高温度增加 1°C 相关，本地获得性 DF 分别增加 6%（95%可信区间：2%，11%）和 61%（95%可信区间：2%，241%）。相比之下，境外输入性 DF 病例分别增加 1%（95%可信区间：0%，3%）和增加 1%（95%可信区间：0%，2%），与平均每月降雨量增加 1 毫米和平均社会经济指数增加 1 单位相关。
社会生态因素似乎影响了昆士兰州 DF 的传播，但本地获得性和境外输入性 DF 的驱动因素可能不同。DF 风险呈空间聚类，本地获得性和境外输入性病例的模式不同。
