School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
Trop Med Int Health. 2014 Jul;19(7):863-71. doi: 10.1111/tmi.12325. Epub 2014 May 27.
OBJECTIVES: To explore the variation in the spatial distribution of notified dengue cases in Colombia from January 2007 to December 2010 and examine associations between the disease and selected environmental risk factors. METHODS: Data on the number of notified dengue cases in Colombia were obtained from the National Institute of Health (Instituto Nacional de Salud - INS) for the period 1 January 2007 through 31 December 2010. Data on environmental factors were collected from the Worldclim website. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the relationship between monthly dengue cases and temperature, precipitation and elevation. RESULTS: Monthly dengue counts decreased by 18% (95% credible interval (CrI): 17-19%) in 2008 and increased by 30% (95% CrI: 28-31%) and 326% (95% CrI: 322-331%) in 2009 and 2010, respectively, compared to 2007. Additionally, there was a significant, nonlinear effect of monthly average precipitation. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the role of environmental risk factors in determining the spatial of dengue and show how these factors can be used to develop and refine preventive approaches for dengue in Colombia.
目的:探索 2007 年 1 月至 2010 年 12 月期间哥伦比亚登革热病例报告的空间分布变化,并研究该疾病与选定环境风险因素之间的关联。
方法:本研究从哥伦比亚国家卫生研究院(Instituto Nacional de Salud - INS)获取了 2007 年 1 月至 2010 年 12 月期间的登革热病例报告数据。环境因素数据来自 Worldclim 网站。采用贝叶斯时空条件自回归模型来量化每月登革热病例与温度、降水和海拔之间的关系。
结果:与 2007 年相比,2008 年每月登革热病例数下降了 18%(95%可信区间(CrI):17-19%),2009 年和 2010 年分别增加了 30%(95% CrI:28-31%)和 326%(95% CrI:322-331%)。此外,每月平均降水量还存在显著的非线性效应。
结论:研究结果强调了环境风险因素在确定登革热空间分布中的作用,并展示了如何利用这些因素来制定和完善哥伦比亚登革热的预防措施。
Trop Med Int Health. 2014-5-27
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