School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Australia.
Epidemiol Infect. 2011 Mar;139(3):391-9. doi: 10.1017/S0950268810000713. Epub 2010 Apr 15.
This study aimed to investigate the spatial clustering and dynamic dispersion of dengue incidence in Queensland, Australia. We used Moran's I statistic to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported dengue cases. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing estimates were used to display the spatial distribution of dengue in postal areas throughout Queensland. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) maps and logistic regression models were used to identify spatial clusters and examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of dengue. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue was clustered during each of the three periods of 1993-1996, 1997-2000 and 2001-2004. The high-incidence clusters of dengue were primarily concentrated in the north of Queensland and low-incidence clusters occurred in the south-east of Queensland. The study concludes that the geographical range of notified dengue cases has significantly expanded in Queensland over recent years.
本研究旨在调查澳大利亚昆士兰州登革热发病率的空间集聚和动态扩散。我们使用 Moran's I 统计量来评估报告的登革热病例的空间自相关。空间经验贝叶斯平滑估计用于显示昆士兰州整个邮区的登革热空间分布。局部空间关联指标（LISA）地图和逻辑回归模型用于识别空间聚类，并研究登革热传播的时空模式。结果表明，在 1993-1996 年、1997-2000 年和 2001-2004 年这三个时期，登革热的空间分布均存在集聚现象。登革热高发聚类主要集中在昆士兰州北部，低发聚类则出现在昆士兰州东南部。研究结论认为，近年来昆士兰州报告的登革热病例地理范围显著扩大。
